Avengers: Doomsday holds a commanding 70% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 opening week due to its December 18 holiday release slot, massive MCU crossover appeal featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning stars, and strong industry tracking that positions it as a potential record-breaker akin to past Avengers events. Traders see this timing and franchise momentum outweighing Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 29.5% chance, even with the latter's July 31 summer debut, recent trailer buzz, and solid presales potential in a less crowded window. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah trail far behind, reflecting their more limited opening-week ceilings compared to superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further trailer drops and advance ticket data that could sharpen these implied odds ahead of the films' respective launches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Avengers: Doomsday 70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 30%
Toy Story 5 1.0%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$39,503 交易量
$39,503 交易量
2026-12-31
Avengers: Doomsday
70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
30%
Toy Story 5
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
<1%
Dune: Messiah
<1%
Avengers: Doomsday 70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 30%
Toy Story 5 1.0%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping <1%
$39,503 交易量
$39,503 交易量
2026-12-31
Avengers: Doomsday
$5,917 交易量
70%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$5,350 交易量
30%
Toy Story 5
$1,782 交易量
1%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$2,387 交易量
<1%
Dune: Messiah
$1,920 交易量
<1%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday holds a commanding 70% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 opening week due to its December 18 holiday release slot, massive MCU crossover appeal featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning stars, and strong industry tracking that positions it as a potential record-breaker akin to past Avengers events. Traders see this timing and franchise momentum outweighing Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 29.5% chance, even with the latter's July 31 summer debut, recent trailer buzz, and solid presales potential in a less crowded window. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah trail far behind, reflecting their more limited opening-week ceilings compared to superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further trailer drops and advance ticket data that could sharpen these implied odds ahead of the films' respective launches.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$39,503结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday holds a commanding 70% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 opening week due to its December 18 holiday release slot, massive MCU crossover appeal featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning stars, and strong industry tracking that positions it as a potential record-breaker akin to past Avengers events. Traders see this timing and franchise momentum outweighing Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 29.5% chance, even with the latter's July 31 summer debut, recent trailer buzz, and solid presales potential in a less crowded window. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah trail far behind, reflecting their more limited opening-week ceilings compared to superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further trailer drops and advance ticket data that could sharpen these implied odds ahead of the films' respective launches.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$39,503结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday holds a commanding 70% market-implied probability for the largest 2026 opening week due to its December 18 holiday release slot, massive MCU crossover appeal featuring Robert Downey Jr. as Doctor Doom alongside returning stars, and strong industry tracking that positions it as a potential record-breaker akin to past Avengers events. Traders see this timing and franchise momentum outweighing Spider-Man: Brand New Day's 29.5% chance, even with the latter's July 31 summer debut, recent trailer buzz, and solid presales potential in a less crowded window. Lower-probability entries like Toy Story 5, The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping, and Dune: Messiah trail far behind, reflecting their more limited opening-week ceilings compared to superhero tentpoles. Upcoming catalysts include further trailer drops and advance ticket data that could sharpen these implied odds ahead of the films' respective launches.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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