Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening week, driven by massive pre-release tracking, Russo brothers' return, and recent executive screenings that impressed studio heads with Endgame-caliber spectacle potential for a December debut exceeding $250 million domestic. Spider-Man: Brand New Day follows at 29% after its trailer amassed record views last week, signaling strong presale momentum for a summer slot leveraging Tom Holland's draw and MCU synergy. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's April 1 launch posted a solid $131 million opening weekend—2026's largest to date—but fell short of record expectations, stabilizing at 26% amid impressive legs toward $600 million worldwide already; Toy Story 5 matches at 26% on Pixar's family juggernaut history ahead of June 19. Dune: Messiah and competitors linger near 25% as holiday franchise clashes loom, with trailer drops and tracking updates as pivotal swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Which movie has biggest opening week in 2026?
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 29%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 26%
Toy Story 5 26%
Dune: Messiah 26%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
29%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
26%
Toy Story 5
26%
Dune: Messiah
26%
The Odyssey
25%
Michael
25%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
25%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
25%
Avengers: Doomsday
49%
Spider-Man: Brand New Day 29%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie 26%
Toy Story 5 26%
Dune: Messiah 26%
最新
最新
2026-12-31
Spider-Man: Brand New Day
$6 交易量
29%
The Super Mario Galaxy Movie
$0 交易量
26%
Toy Story 5
$0 交易量
26%
Dune: Messiah
$0 交易量
26%
The Odyssey
$0 交易量
25%
Michael
$0 交易量
25%
Star Wars: The Mandalorian and Grogu
$0 交易量
25%
The Hunger Games: Sunrise on the Reaping
$0 交易量
25%
Avengers: Doomsday
$20 交易量
49%
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening week, driven by massive pre-release tracking, Russo brothers' return, and recent executive screenings that impressed studio heads with Endgame-caliber spectacle potential for a December debut exceeding $250 million domestic. Spider-Man: Brand New Day follows at 29% after its trailer amassed record views last week, signaling strong presale momentum for a summer slot leveraging Tom Holland's draw and MCU synergy. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's April 1 launch posted a solid $131 million opening weekend—2026's largest to date—but fell short of record expectations, stabilizing at 26% amid impressive legs toward $600 million worldwide already; Toy Story 5 matches at 26% on Pixar's family juggernaut history ahead of June 19. Dune: Messiah and competitors linger near 25% as holiday franchise clashes loom, with trailer drops and tracking updates as pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
市场开放时间： Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ET
交易量
$26结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening week, driven by massive pre-release tracking, Russo brothers' return, and recent executive screenings that impressed studio heads with Endgame-caliber spectacle potential for a December debut exceeding $250 million domestic. Spider-Man: Brand New Day follows at 29% after its trailer amassed record views last week, signaling strong presale momentum for a summer slot leveraging Tom Holland's draw and MCU synergy. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's April 1 launch posted a solid $131 million opening weekend—2026's largest to date—but fell short of record expectations, stabilizing at 26% amid impressive legs toward $600 million worldwide already; Toy Story 5 matches at 26% on Pixar's family juggernaut history ahead of June 19. Dune: Messiah and competitors linger near 25% as holiday franchise clashes loom, with trailer drops and tracking updates as pivotal swing factors.
This market will resolve according to the title of the movie which grosses more domestically on its opening week than any other movie in 2026. The “Weekly Box Office Performance” table on the page for the relevant movie on https://www.the-numbers.com/box-office will be used to resolve this market once the values for the opening week are final (i.e. not studio estimates).
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the relevant movie grosses more on its domestic opening week than any other movie in 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
Please note, this market will resolve according to the The Numbers figures provided under Weekly Box Office Performance for the opening week, regardless of whether domestic refers to only the USA, or to USA and Canada, etc.
Resolution will be based specifically on the figures provided for this movie's opening week.
If another movie's opening week box office performance surpasses that of the named movie after numbers for both are finalized, this market may immediately resolve to "No".
If this movie's opening weekend box office performance ties with any other's, the movie whose title comes first in alphabetical order will win.
If there is no final data available by January 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, another credible resolution source will be chosen.
交易量
$26结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Apr 16, 2026, 3:17 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Avengers: Doomsday leads trader consensus at 48.5% implied probability for 2026's biggest opening week, driven by massive pre-release tracking, Russo brothers' return, and recent executive screenings that impressed studio heads with Endgame-caliber spectacle potential for a December debut exceeding $250 million domestic. Spider-Man: Brand New Day follows at 29% after its trailer amassed record views last week, signaling strong presale momentum for a summer slot leveraging Tom Holland's draw and MCU synergy. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie's April 1 launch posted a solid $131 million opening weekend—2026's largest to date—but fell short of record expectations, stabilizing at 26% amid impressive legs toward $600 million worldwide already; Toy Story 5 matches at 26% on Pixar's family juggernaut history ahead of June 19. Dune: Messiah and competitors linger near 25% as holiday franchise clashes loom, with trailer drops and tracking updates as pivotal swing factors.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
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警惕外部链接哦。
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