Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhones, typically occurring in September, underpins the 97.1% market-implied odds favoring an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders draw on consistent historical patterns, ongoing supply-chain activity, and developer ecosystem signals that align with prior model timelines, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game consensus rather than speculation. While near-certain, realistic disruptions remain possible, including last-minute hardware delays from component shortages, unforeseen software integration issues with advanced AI features, or regulatory hurdles around global availability and compliance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
97% 概率
$167,271 交易量
$167,271 交易量
2026-12-31
是
97% 概率
$167,271 交易量
$167,271 交易量
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhones, typically occurring in September, underpins the 97.1% market-implied odds favoring an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders draw on consistent historical patterns, ongoing supply-chain activity, and developer ecosystem signals that align with prior model timelines, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game consensus rather than speculation. While near-certain, realistic disruptions remain possible, including last-minute hardware delays from component shortages, unforeseen software integration issues with advanced AI features, or regulatory hurdles around global availability and compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ET
交易量
$167,271结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhones, typically occurring in September, underpins the 97.1% market-implied odds favoring an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders draw on consistent historical patterns, ongoing supply-chain activity, and developer ecosystem signals that align with prior model timelines, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game consensus rather than speculation. While near-certain, realistic disruptions remain possible, including last-minute hardware delays from component shortages, unforeseen software integration issues with advanced AI features, or regulatory hurdles around global availability and compliance.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple officially releases iPhone 18 by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "iPhone" and be recognized as a successor to the original iPhone product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 15 and iPhone 16. A new iPhone product released without a number, under a designation other than iPhone 18, will qualify if it retains the original functions of the iPhone and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$167,271结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:53 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple's established annual release cadence for its flagship iPhones, typically occurring in September, underpins the 97.1% market-implied odds favoring an iPhone 18 launch in 2026. Traders draw on consistent historical patterns, ongoing supply-chain activity, and developer ecosystem signals that align with prior model timelines, reflecting strong skin-in-the-game consensus rather than speculation. While near-certain, realistic disruptions remain possible, including last-minute hardware delays from component shortages, unforeseen software integration issues with advanced AI features, or regulatory hurdles around global availability and compliance.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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