Recent analyst reports, including from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, confirm that Apple has deprioritized a full next-generation mixed-reality headset successor to the original Vision Pro, redirecting resources toward lighter smart glasses expected later in the decade. With the M5 chip upgrade to the existing model already shipped in late 2025 and no new head-mounted devices slated for 2026, supply-chain and internal timelines point to a substantive Vision Pro 2 launch no earlier than 2028. This cautious spatial computing cadence aligns with Apple's history of measured platform development and supports the market's strong 94% implied probability against a pre-2027 release. A surprise acceleration in engineering or major announcement at an upcoming developer event could still alter the outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent analyst reports, including from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, confirm that Apple has deprioritized a full next-generation mixed-reality headset successor to the original Vision Pro, redirecting resources toward lighter smart glasses expected later in the decade. With the M5 chip upgrade to the existing model already shipped in late 2025 and no new head-mounted devices slated for 2026, supply-chain and internal timelines point to a substantive Vision Pro 2 launch no earlier than 2028. This cautious spatial computing cadence aligns with Apple's history of measured platform development and supports the market's strong 94% implied probability against a pre-2027 release. A surprise acceleration in engineering or major announcement at an upcoming developer event could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$4,466结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Recent analyst reports, including from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, confirm that Apple has deprioritized a full next-generation mixed-reality headset successor to the original Vision Pro, redirecting resources toward lighter smart glasses expected later in the decade. With the M5 chip upgrade to the existing model already shipped in late 2025 and no new head-mounted devices slated for 2026, supply-chain and internal timelines point to a substantive Vision Pro 2 launch no earlier than 2028. This cautious spatial computing cadence aligns with Apple's history of measured platform development and supports the market's strong 94% implied probability against a pre-2027 release. A surprise acceleration in engineering or major announcement at an upcoming developer event could still alter the outlook.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,466结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent analyst reports, including from Bloomberg's Mark Gurman, confirm that Apple has deprioritized a full next-generation mixed-reality headset successor to the original Vision Pro, redirecting resources toward lighter smart glasses expected later in the decade. With the M5 chip upgrade to the existing model already shipped in late 2025 and no new head-mounted devices slated for 2026, supply-chain and internal timelines point to a substantive Vision Pro 2 launch no earlier than 2028. This cautious spatial computing cadence aligns with Apple's history of measured platform development and supports the market's strong 94% implied probability against a pre-2027 release. A surprise acceleration in engineering or major announcement at an upcoming developer event could still alter the outlook.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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