Apple’s recent October 2025 refresh of the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and visionOS 26 updates has reinforced trader consensus that a true second-generation model remains unlikely before 2027. Industry reporting from Bloomberg and supply-chain analysts continues to point to internal upgrades only for the current platform, with a full redesign and cheaper variant now slated for 2027 or later. This timeline aligns with Apple’s typical two-to-three-year hardware cycles for spatial computing devices and the absence of any official announcements or regulatory filings indicating an accelerated release. While an unexpected surprise launch or major supply-chain shift could still move the market, the current 94 percent implied probability on “No” reflects strong conviction based on verified development patterns and lack of contradictory signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
是
最新
最新
2026-12-31
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s recent October 2025 refresh of the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and visionOS 26 updates has reinforced trader consensus that a true second-generation model remains unlikely before 2027. Industry reporting from Bloomberg and supply-chain analysts continues to point to internal upgrades only for the current platform, with a full redesign and cheaper variant now slated for 2027 or later. This timeline aligns with Apple’s typical two-to-three-year hardware cycles for spatial computing devices and the absence of any official announcements or regulatory filings indicating an accelerated release. While an unexpected surprise launch or major supply-chain shift could still move the market, the current 94 percent implied probability on “No” reflects strong conviction based on verified development patterns and lack of contradictory signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
市场开放时间： Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ET
交易量
$4,466结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.Apple’s recent October 2025 refresh of the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and visionOS 26 updates has reinforced trader consensus that a true second-generation model remains unlikely before 2027. Industry reporting from Bloomberg and supply-chain analysts continues to point to internal upgrades only for the current platform, with a full redesign and cheaper variant now slated for 2027 or later. This timeline aligns with Apple’s typical two-to-three-year hardware cycles for spatial computing devices and the absence of any official announcements or regulatory filings indicating an accelerated release. While an unexpected surprise launch or major supply-chain shift could still move the market, the current 94 percent implied probability on “No” reflects strong conviction based on verified development patterns and lack of contradictory signals.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Apple releases a new Vision Pro product by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
A qualifying product must be named "Apple Vision" and be recognized as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product, similar to the relationship between iPhone 14 and iPhone 15. A new Apple Vision product released without a number, under a designation other than Apple Vision Pro 2 will qualify if it retains the original functions of the Apple Vision Pro and expands on them in such a way that it is clear that this product is a successor.
Releases framed as an upgrade or refresh (e.g. the 2025 release of the Apple Vision Pro with an M5 chip) will not qualify as a successor to the original Apple Vision Pro product.
In order to be considered released, the product must be available for purchase by the general public within the specified timeframe. An announcement or unveiling alone is not sufficient.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official statements from Apple. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
交易量
$4,466结束日期
2026-12-31市场开放时间
Dec 12, 2025, 5:54 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Apple’s recent October 2025 refresh of the original Vision Pro with an M5 chip and visionOS 26 updates has reinforced trader consensus that a true second-generation model remains unlikely before 2027. Industry reporting from Bloomberg and supply-chain analysts continues to point to internal upgrades only for the current platform, with a full redesign and cheaper variant now slated for 2027 or later. This timeline aligns with Apple’s typical two-to-three-year hardware cycles for spatial computing devices and the absence of any official announcements or regulatory filings indicating an accelerated release. While an unexpected surprise launch or major supply-chain shift could still move the market, the current 94 percent implied probability on “No” reflects strong conviction based on verified development patterns and lack of contradictory signals.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
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