Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting a release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the Grok 4.5 foundation. This follows xAI's mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly led benchmarks in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity while remaining cost-efficient. Traders are watching for official API availability and Arena leaderboard placement, as the model aims to close the gap with competitors like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later, adding uncertainty around exact public rollout timing and potential last-minute adjustments in the fast-moving AI development cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于最新
$38,321 交易量
2026-08-07
8月7日
12%
8月14日
88%
$38,321 交易量
8月7日
$21,692 交易量
12%
8月14日
$16,629 交易量
88%
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting a release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the Grok 4.5 foundation. This follows xAI's mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly led benchmarks in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity while remaining cost-efficient. Traders are watching for official API availability and Arena leaderboard placement, as the model aims to close the gap with competitors like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later, adding uncertainty around exact public rollout timing and potential last-minute adjustments in the fast-moving AI development cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
市场开放时间： Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ET
交易量
$38,321结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting a release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the Grok 4.5 foundation. This follows xAI's mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly led benchmarks in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity while remaining cost-efficient. Traders are watching for official API availability and Arena leaderboard placement, as the model aims to close the gap with competitors like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later, adding uncertainty around exact public rollout timing and potential last-minute adjustments in the fast-moving AI development cycle.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if SpaceXAI's Grok 4.6 model is made available to the general public by the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No."
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Grok 4.6 refers to a product explicitly named Grok 4.6, or a variant that is recognized as a direct successor to Grok 4.5, similar to the progression from Grok 4.4 to Grok 4.5 (e.g., Grok 4.6, Grok 4.75, etc., would qualify toward a "Yes" resolution to this market).
Qualifying releases of task-specialized models or cost-efficiency variants will count for this market. Products labeled as a new flagship generation Grok 5 or similar will NOT qualify.
For this market to resolve to "Yes," a qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice.
The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by SpaceXAI as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company’s official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify.
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from SpaceXAI, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
交易量
$38,321结束日期
2026-08-14市场开放时间
Aug 5, 2026, 1:32 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Elon Musk's late-July announcements on X set the primary timeline for Grok 4.6, targeting a release around August 7 as a 1.5-trillion-parameter model with enhanced supervised fine-tuning and reinforcement learning on the Grok 4.5 foundation. This follows xAI's mid-July launch of Grok 4.5, which quickly led benchmarks in coding, agentic tasks, and cybersecurity while remaining cost-efficient. Traders are watching for official API availability and Arena leaderboard placement, as the model aims to close the gap with competitors like Claude Opus 4.8 and Kimi K3. A larger Grok 4.7 is slated for weeks later, adding uncertainty around exact public rollout timing and potential last-minute adjustments in the fast-moving AI development cycle.
基于Polymarket数据的AI实验性摘要。这不是交易建议，也不影响该市场的结算方式。 · 更新于
警惕外部链接哦。
警惕外部链接哦。
常见问题