Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite Q4 2025 growth revising down to a sluggish 0.5% annualized rate on April 9, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.3%, bolstering expectations for a Q1 rebound tracked by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow at around 1.3–1.9%, while FOMC March projections show median 2026 growth at 2.4%. Lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% (12%) and <0.5% (10%) trail amid optimism for productivity gains and Fed easing, though Q1 advance GDP due late April could shift sentiment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 57%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 Vol.
$26,701 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
10%
0.5–1.0%
5%
1.0–1.5%
8%
1.5–2.0%
12%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
57%
>2.5% 57%
1.5–2.0% 11.6%
<0.5% 10.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
$26,701 Vol.
$26,701 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$3,752 Vol.
10%
0.5–1.0%
$15,052 Vol.
5%
1.0–1.5%
$1,460 Vol.
8%
1.5–2.0%
$1,277 Vol.
12%
2.0–2.5%
$1,338 Vol.
10%
>2.5%
$3,820 Vol.
57%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite Q4 2025 growth revising down to a sluggish 0.5% annualized rate on April 9, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.3%, bolstering expectations for a Q1 rebound tracked by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow at around 1.3–1.9%, while FOMC March projections show median 2026 growth at 2.4%. Lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% (12%) and <0.5% (10%) trail amid optimism for productivity gains and Fed easing, though Q1 advance GDP due late April could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$26,701শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite Q4 2025 growth revising down to a sluggish 0.5% annualized rate on April 9, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.3%, bolstering expectations for a Q1 rebound tracked by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow at around 1.3–1.9%, while FOMC March projections show median 2026 growth at 2.4%. Lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% (12%) and <0.5% (10%) trail amid optimism for productivity gains and Fed easing, though Q1 advance GDP due late April could shift sentiment.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$26,701শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Trader consensus on Polymarket prices a 55% implied probability for U.S. real GDP growth exceeding 2.5% in 2026, reflecting resilience in the labor market despite Q4 2025 growth revising down to a sluggish 0.5% annualized rate on April 9, as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. March nonfarm payrolls added 178,000 jobs with unemployment steady near 4.3%, bolstering expectations for a Q1 rebound tracked by the Atlanta Fed's GDPNow at around 1.3–1.9%, while FOMC March projections show median 2026 growth at 2.4%. Lower brackets like 1.5–2.0% (12%) and <0.5% (10%) trail amid optimism for productivity gains and Fed easing, though Q1 advance GDP due late April could shift sentiment.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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