Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডGDP growth in 2026
GDP growth in 2026
>2.5% 60%
1.0–1.5% 12.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
<0.5% 7.6%
$31,366 Vol.
$31,366 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
9%
0.5–1.0%
7%
1.0–1.5%
12%
1.5–2.0%
5%
2.0–2.5%
10%
>2.5%
60%
>2.5% 60%
1.0–1.5% 12.1%
2.0–2.5% 10%
<0.5% 7.6%
$31,366 Vol.
$31,366 Vol.
Jan 29, 2027
<0.5%
$4,243 Vol.
9%
0.5–1.0%
$15,566 Vol.
7%
1.0–1.5%
$2,044 Vol.
12%
1.5–2.0%
$2,353 Vol.
5%
2.0–2.5%
$2,300 Vol.
10%
>2.5%
$4,860 Vol.
60%
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$31,366শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted real GDP growth rate for the United States in 2026, as reported in the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) "Advance Estimate" release for Q4 of 2026, estimated to be released in January 2027.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
If the reported value falls exactly between two brackets, then this market will resolve to the higher range bracket.
The GDP release will be made available here: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product
Note: The relevant data will be the full-year real GDP growth rate as stated in the advance estimate, typically expressed as the percentage change from the annual level in 2025 to the annual level in 2026. Any revisions to this figure made after the release of the advance estimate will not be considered for this market's resolution.
ভলিউম
$31,366শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 12, 2025, 6:17 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent Q1 2026 GDP data at 1.6% annualized has tempered near-term momentum, yet trader consensus on Polymarket assigns the highest implied probability (46%) to full-year growth exceeding 2.5%. This positioning reflects expectations that fiscal measures from the 2025 reconciliation act—tax cuts boosting consumption and immediate expensing spurring investment—will outweigh drags from elevated tariffs, reduced immigration, and energy-price spikes tied to Middle East conflict. Official forecasts cluster around 2.2%, including the CBO and FOMC’s March median, while labor-market resilience and potential further monetary easing provide additional support. Key upcoming releases, such as the final Q1 GDP on June 25 and subsequent quarterly data, alongside FOMC communications, will likely influence revisions to these market-implied odds.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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