Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Strong consensus on positive U.S. GDP growth in 2026, currently tracking near 2.0-2.3% across official projections and private forecasts, underpins the 96% market-implied probability against contraction. Recent Q2 2026 data showed 1.5% annualized expansion, supported by resilient consumer spending, shifting momentum toward business investment in AI and productivity tools, and lingering effects from 2025 fiscal measures. Stable labor conditions with unemployment near 4.5% and contained recession signals have reinforced trader views, despite sticky core inflation keeping the Fed on hold. Tail risks that could still alter outcomes include sharper labor-market cooling triggering consumption weakness, energy-price shocks from geopolitical developments, or more severe tariff and immigration effects than currently priced in.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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