Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts continue to underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Vanguard, and others anticipate annual real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.5%, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and resilient consumer spending despite elevated rates. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, with the labor market stable near 4.5% unemployment and no material contraction signals. While this strong trader consensus reflects broad alignment across institutional outlooks, tail risks such as sharper tariff escalation, renewed energy price spikes, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still compress activity below zero for the full year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts continue to underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Vanguard, and others anticipate annual real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.5%, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and resilient consumer spending despite elevated rates. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, with the labor market stable near 4.5% unemployment and no material contraction signals. While this strong trader consensus reflects broad alignment across institutional outlooks, tail risks such as sharper tariff escalation, renewed energy price spikes, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still compress activity below zero for the full year.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts continue to underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Vanguard, and others anticipate annual real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.5%, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and resilient consumer spending despite elevated rates. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, with the labor market stable near 4.5% unemployment and no material contraction signals. While this strong trader consensus reflects broad alignment across institutional outlooks, tail risks such as sharper tariff escalation, renewed energy price spikes, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still compress activity below zero for the full year.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts continue to underpin the 96% market-implied probability against negative GDP growth for 2026. Official projections from the Congressional Budget Office, S&P Global, Vanguard, and others anticipate annual real GDP expansion of 2.0–2.5%, supported by business investment in AI and productivity-enhancing technologies, fiscal tailwinds from prior policy measures, and resilient consumer spending despite elevated rates. First-quarter 2026 growth registered 1.6% annualized, with the labor market stable near 4.5% unemployment and no material contraction signals. While this strong trader consensus reflects broad alignment across institutional outlooks, tail risks such as sharper tariff escalation, renewed energy price spikes, or abrupt fiscal tightening could still compress activity below zero for the full year.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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