Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026 following 2.1% in Q1, with contributions from consumer spending, business investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures, fiscal tailwinds, and a labor market holding near 4.1–4.5% unemployment. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects resilient activity through mid-2026. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include escalation of Middle East conflicts raising energy prices, sharper tariff effects, or an abrupt labor-market deterioration prompting a sharper consumer pullback.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডNegative GDP growth in 2026?
Negative GDP growth in 2026?
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
4% সম্ভাবনা
$32,234 Vol.
$32,234 Vol.
Jan 28, 2027
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026 following 2.1% in Q1, with contributions from consumer spending, business investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures, fiscal tailwinds, and a labor market holding near 4.1–4.5% unemployment. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects resilient activity through mid-2026. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include escalation of Middle East conflicts raising energy prices, sharper tariff effects, or an abrupt labor-market deterioration prompting a sharper consumer pullback.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ET
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026 following 2.1% in Q1, with contributions from consumer spending, business investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures, fiscal tailwinds, and a labor market holding near 4.1–4.5% unemployment. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects resilient activity through mid-2026. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include escalation of Middle East conflicts raising energy prices, sharper tariff effects, or an abrupt labor-market deterioration prompting a sharper consumer pullback.
This market will resolve to 'Yes' if the seasonally adjusted and annualized GDP growth rate for the full year 2026, as derived from the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, with a release by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) expected in January 2027, reports a growth rate below 0. Otherwise, this market will resolve to 'No'.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
The GDP release will be available at: https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product.
Only the first available GDP report labeled as the 'Advance Estimate' for Q4 2026, which provides the initial full-year 2026 GDP growth rate, will be used for resolution. Any subsequent revisions or updates to the data will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$32,234শেষ তারিখ
Jan 29, 2027মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Nov 13, 2025, 4:17 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Recent U.S. economic data and consensus forecasts underpin the 96% market-implied odds against negative GDP growth for 2026. The Bureau of Economic Analysis reported 1.5% annualized real GDP expansion in Q2 2026 following 2.1% in Q1, with contributions from consumer spending, business investment, and exports. Projections from the Congressional Budget Office, IMF, and private forecasters center on 2.0–2.3% full-year growth, supported by AI-driven capital expenditures, fiscal tailwinds, and a labor market holding near 4.1–4.5% unemployment. This skin-in-the-game consensus reflects resilient activity through mid-2026. Tail risks that could still shift outcomes include escalation of Middle East conflicts raising energy prices, sharper tariff effects, or an abrupt labor-market deterioration prompting a sharper consumer pullback.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
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