The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–16°C for Beijing’s minimum temperature on September 21 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and radiative cooling overnight can shift the low by 1°C. Current GFS and ECMWF runs show a weak upper-level trough passing to the north, allowing variable clear-sky conditions that favor efficient cooling under lighter winds, while any increase in low-level humidity from southerly flow could limit the drop. This aligns with mid-September climatology, where Beijing’s average overnight low sits near 15°C with a standard deviation of roughly 1.5°C. Fresh model cycles expected overnight will likely tighten the consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window used for resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেডLowest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
Lowest temperature in Beijing on September 21?
15°C 100%
13°C or below 90%
16°C 51%
14°C 18%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
90%
14°C
18%
15°C
100%
16°C
51%
17°C
<1%
18°C
<1%
19°C
<1%
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
<1%
23°C or higher
<1%
15°C 100%
13°C or below 90%
16°C 51%
14°C 18%
নতুন
নতুন
Sep 21, 2026
13°C or below
$0 Vol.
90%
14°C
$0 Vol.
18%
15°C
$0 Vol.
100%
16°C
$0 Vol.
51%
17°C
$125 Vol.
<1%
18°C
$41 Vol.
<1%
19°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
20°C
$36 Vol.
<1%
21°C
$37 Vol.
<1%
22°C
$31 Vol.
<1%
23°C or higher
$31 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–16°C for Beijing’s minimum temperature on September 21 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and radiative cooling overnight can shift the low by 1°C. Current GFS and ECMWF runs show a weak upper-level trough passing to the north, allowing variable clear-sky conditions that favor efficient cooling under lighter winds, while any increase in low-level humidity from southerly flow could limit the drop. This aligns with mid-September climatology, where Beijing’s average overnight low sits near 15°C with a standard deviation of roughly 1.5°C. Fresh model cycles expected overnight will likely tighten the consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে: Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ET
ভলিউম
$332শেষ তারিখ
Sep 21, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–16°C for Beijing’s minimum temperature on September 21 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and radiative cooling overnight can shift the low by 1°C. Current GFS and ECMWF runs show a weak upper-level trough passing to the north, allowing variable clear-sky conditions that favor efficient cooling under lighter winds, while any increase in low-level humidity from southerly flow could limit the drop. This aligns with mid-September climatology, where Beijing’s average overnight low sits near 15°C with a standard deviation of roughly 1.5°C. Fresh model cycles expected overnight will likely tighten the consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window used for resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the Beijing Capital International Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 21 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaa
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
ভলিউম
$332শেষ তারিখ
Sep 21, 2026মার্কেট ওপেন হয়েছে
Sep 19, 2026, 12:30 AM ETরেজোলিউশন সোর্স
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=zbaaরেজলভার
0x69c47De9D...The tight clustering of market-implied odds around 15–16°C for Beijing’s minimum temperature on September 21 reflects genuine uncertainty in short-range ensemble forecasts, where small differences in boundary-layer moisture, cloud cover, and radiative cooling overnight can shift the low by 1°C. Current GFS and ECMWF runs show a weak upper-level trough passing to the north, allowing variable clear-sky conditions that favor efficient cooling under lighter winds, while any increase in low-level humidity from southerly flow could limit the drop. This aligns with mid-September climatology, where Beijing’s average overnight low sits near 15°C with a standard deviation of roughly 1.5°C. Fresh model cycles expected overnight will likely tighten the consensus ahead of the 24-hour verification window used for resolution.
Polymarket ডেটা রেফারেন্স করে পরীক্ষামূলক AI-জেনারেটেড সারাংশ। এটি ট্রেডিং পরামর্শ নয় এবং এই মার্কেট কীভাবে রেজলভ হয় তাতে কোনো ভূমিকা রাখে না। · আপডেটেড
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
বাহ্যিক লিংক থেকে সাবধান।
সচরাচর জিজ্ঞাসা