Minnesota’s 2nd congressional district has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, with Angie Craig’s repeated victories establishing a durable partisan baseline even after she vacated the seat to pursue a Senate bid. Traders assign the Democratic nominee a 90.5 percent implied probability because the open-seat primary on August 11 features multiple competitive DFL candidates who can consolidate the district’s established voter coalition, while Republican recruitment remains limited ahead of the November general election. Historical turnout patterns and modest polling margins reinforce this consensus. Late developments that could narrow the gap include a highly competitive Republican primary producing a well-funded nominee, a pronounced national midterm shift favoring the GOP, or unusually low Democratic turnout driven by primary divisions or external events.