Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4 million compared to Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln’s roughly $2.2 million. Mid-decade redistricting has strengthened the district’s Democratic tilt, as evidenced by Kamala Harris’s 38-point margin there in 2024, while Gray’s primary performance and endorsements from labor groups further consolidate support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on prediction markets. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national political shifts, turnout surges favoring Republicans, or late developments affecting either candidate’s viability before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertCA-13 Wahlsieger
CA-13 Wahlsieger
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Adam Gray (D)
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
7%
$16,049 Vol.
$16,049 Vol.
3. Nov. 2026
Adam Gray (D)
$9,134 Vol.
94%
Kevin Lincoln (R)
$6,915 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4 million compared to Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln’s roughly $2.2 million. Mid-decade redistricting has strengthened the district’s Democratic tilt, as evidenced by Kamala Harris’s 38-point margin there in 2024, while Gray’s primary performance and endorsements from labor groups further consolidate support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on prediction markets. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national political shifts, turnout surges favoring Republicans, or late developments affecting either candidate’s viability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ET
Volumen
$16,049Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4 million compared to Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln’s roughly $2.2 million. Mid-decade redistricting has strengthened the district’s Democratic tilt, as evidenced by Kamala Harris’s 38-point margin there in 2024, while Gray’s primary performance and endorsements from labor groups further consolidate support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on prediction markets. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national political shifts, turnout surges favoring Republicans, or late developments affecting either candidate’s viability before the November 3 general election.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-13 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$16,049Enddatum
4. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Dec 16, 2025, 11:45 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Adam Gray holds a commanding position in the CA-13 race due to his narrow 2024 victory that flipped the seat, combined with substantial fundraising advantages exceeding $4 million compared to Republican challenger Kevin Lincoln’s roughly $2.2 million. Mid-decade redistricting has strengthened the district’s Democratic tilt, as evidenced by Kamala Harris’s 38-point margin there in 2024, while Gray’s primary performance and endorsements from labor groups further consolidate support. Forecasters rate the contest Lean or Likely Democratic, aligning with trader consensus on prediction markets. Scenarios that could narrow the gap include unexpected national political shifts, turnout surges favoring Republicans, or late developments affecting either candidate’s viability before the November 3 general election.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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