Manfred Reyes Villa's commanding 99.2% implied probability in the Cochabamba mayoral election market stems from official results from Bolivia's Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE), showing him securing over 55% of the vote in the March 7, 2021 subnational elections, far ahead of rivals like MAS candidate José Carlos Sánchez. Trader consensus reflects the race's certification with minimal disputes, bolstered by Reyes Villa's incumbency as mayor and strong regional support amid Bolivia's polarized politics between Civic Community and MAS factions. Realistic challenges include potential recounts or legal appeals from opponents alleging irregularities, though TSE validation and historical precedent for swift resolutions make reversals improbable absent major evidence. Upcoming certification deadlines could further solidify odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertGewinner der Bürgermeisterwahl in Cochabamba (Bolivien)
Gewinner der Bürgermeisterwahl in Cochabamba (Bolivien)
Manfred Reyes Villa 99.2%
Cristian Tastaca <1%
José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín <1%
Ronald Antonio Unzueta <1%
$317,292 Vol.
$317,292 Vol.

Manfred Reyes Villa
99%

Cristian Tastaca
<1%

José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín
<1%

Ronald Antonio Unzueta
<1%

Ramón Daza
<1%

Edgar Javier Rodriguez
<1%

Carlos Zavaleta
<1%

Rocio Alejandra Molina
<1%

Luis Roberto Perrogón
<1%

Francisco Javier Bellott
<1%
Manfred Reyes Villa 99.2%
Cristian Tastaca <1%
José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín <1%
Ronald Antonio Unzueta <1%
$317,292 Vol.
$317,292 Vol.

Manfred Reyes Villa
99%

Cristian Tastaca
<1%

José Carlos Sánchez Verazaín
<1%

Ronald Antonio Unzueta
<1%

Ramón Daza
<1%

Edgar Javier Rodriguez
<1%

Carlos Zavaleta
<1%

Rocio Alejandra Molina
<1%

Luis Roberto Perrogón
<1%

Francisco Javier Bellott
<1%
This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election.
If the result of this election isn't known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other".
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Bolivian electoral authority, the Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE) (https://www.oep.org.bo).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 20, 2026, 8:40 AM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...Manfred Reyes Villa's commanding 99.2% implied probability in the Cochabamba mayoral election market stems from official results from Bolivia's Tribunal Supremo Electoral (TSE), showing him securing over 55% of the vote in the March 7, 2021 subnational elections, far ahead of rivals like MAS candidate José Carlos Sánchez. Trader consensus reflects the race's certification with minimal disputes, bolstered by Reyes Villa's incumbency as mayor and strong regional support amid Bolivia's polarized politics between Civic Community and MAS factions. Realistic challenges include potential recounts or legal appeals from opponents alleging irregularities, though TSE validation and historical precedent for swift resolutions make reversals improbable absent major evidence. Upcoming certification deadlines could further solidify odds.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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