Trader consensus heavily favors 90-114 tweets from Elon Musk over March 19-21, 2026 (41% implied probability), reflecting his sustained high-volume posting patterns amid ongoing cultural dominance in tech and politics. Recent surges—averaging 30-40 daily posts during 2024 election fervor and DOGE initiatives—have calibrated expectations for similar activity, with spikes tied to real-time events like policy announcements or viral memes. Lower tiers like 115-139 (23%) and 65-89 (21.5%) capture variability from quieter periods, but extremes under 40 or over 240 remain marginal (<1%) given historical precedents avoiding burnout. Upcoming catalysts, including potential government efficiency updates, could amplify volume, underscoring the market's sensitivity to Musk's unpredictable yet prolific X engagement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert90-114 44%
65-89 22%
115-139 21%
140-164 7.1%
$736,425 Vol.
$736,425 Vol.
<40
<1%
40–64
2%
65-89
22%
90-114
44%
115-139
21%
140-164
7%
165-189
2%
190–214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
90-114 44%
65-89 22%
115-139 21%
140-164 7.1%
$736,425 Vol.
$736,425 Vol.
<40
<1%
40–64
2%
65-89
22%
90-114
44%
115-139
21%
140-164
7%
165-189
2%
190–214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 16, 2026, 12:01 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus heavily favors 90-114 tweets from Elon Musk over March 19-21, 2026 (41% implied probability), reflecting his sustained high-volume posting patterns amid ongoing cultural dominance in tech and politics. Recent surges—averaging 30-40 daily posts during 2024 election fervor and DOGE initiatives—have calibrated expectations for similar activity, with spikes tied to real-time events like policy announcements or viral memes. Lower tiers like 115-139 (23%) and 65-89 (21.5%) capture variability from quieter periods, but extremes under 40 or over 240 remain marginal (<1%) given historical precedents avoiding burnout. Upcoming catalysts, including potential government efficiency updates, could amplify volume, underscoring the market's sensitivity to Musk's unpredictable yet prolific X engagement.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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