Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from March 21-23, 2026, at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 90-114 at 25%, driven by his historical average of 20-35 daily posts on X amid political firestorms and Tesla/SpaceX hype cycles. Recent surges—over 100 tweets daily during the 2024 election and DOGE commission buzz—fuel bets on elevated volume if 2026 brings Starship launches or Robotaxi reveals, yet baseline caution prevails due to potential burnout or algorithmic shifts. Competitive dynamics hinge on event catalysts: mundane weeks cap at 60-90, while controversies push 100+, with lower tails like under 40 or 240+ as tail risks from vacations or platform tweaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert65-89 32%
90-114 25%
115-139 15%
40-64 14%
$77,727 Vol.
$77,727 Vol.
<40
4%
40-64
14%
65-89
32%
90-114
25%
115-139
15%
140-164
7%
165-189
6%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
65-89 32%
90-114 25%
115-139 15%
40-64 14%
$77,727 Vol.
$77,727 Vol.
<40
4%
40-64
14%
65-89
32%
90-114
25%
115-139
15%
140-164
7%
165-189
6%
190-214
1%
215-239
<1%
240+
<1%
For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count.
Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker.
Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes).
Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total.
The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 19, 2026, 12:02 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://x.com/elonmuskResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket tilts toward Elon Musk posting 65-89 tweets from March 21-23, 2026, at 32% implied probability, closely trailed by 90-114 at 25%, driven by his historical average of 20-35 daily posts on X amid political firestorms and Tesla/SpaceX hype cycles. Recent surges—over 100 tweets daily during the 2024 election and DOGE commission buzz—fuel bets on elevated volume if 2026 brings Starship launches or Robotaxi reveals, yet baseline caution prevails due to potential burnout or algorithmic shifts. Competitive dynamics hinge on event catalysts: mundane weeks cap at 60-90, while controversies push 100+, with lower tails like under 40 or 240+ as tail risks from vacations or platform tweaks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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