RFK Jr. remains HHS Secretary more than 18 months after his narrow 2025 Senate confirmation, continuing to lead departmental reorganizations, vaccine policy shifts, and staffing changes aligned with administration priorities. Recent months show no public signals of resignation or removal, with Kennedy testifying on Capitol Hill, directing leadership adjustments, and addressing outbreaks while Trump has not indicated any loss of support. Calls for his departure have come mainly from outside critics and have not translated into institutional pressure or White House action. Traders therefore assign only a 28% chance he leaves the post by year-end, reflecting his entrenched position and the absence of catalysts that would normally force an early exit before the December 31 resolution date.