Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Madrid am 17. Juli?
Höchste Temperatur in Madrid am 17. Juli?
35°C 52%
34°C 31%
36°C 19%
37°C 1.4%
NEU
$17,998 Vol.
NEU
$17,998 Vol.
17. Juli 2026
30°C oder darunter
<1%
31°C
<1%
32°C
1%
33°C
1%
34°C
31%
35°C
52%
36°C
19%
37°C
1%
38°C
<1%
39°C
<1%
40°C oder höher
<1%
35°C 52%
34°C 31%
36°C 19%
37°C 1.4%
NEU
$17,998 Vol.
NEU
$17,998 Vol.
17. Juli 2026
30°C oder darunter
$952 Vol.
<1%
31°C
$1,102 Vol.
<1%
32°C
$516 Vol.
1%
33°C
$670 Vol.
1%
34°C
$3,467 Vol.
31%
35°C
$6,063 Vol.
52%
36°C
$2,274 Vol.
19%
37°C
$1,157 Vol.
1%
38°C
$649 Vol.
<1%
39°C
$809 Vol.
<1%
40°C oder höher
$338 Vol.
<1%
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ET
Volumen
$17,998Enddatum
17. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 17 Jul '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMD.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$17,998Enddatum
17. Juli 2026Markt eröffnet
Jul 15, 2026, 12:04 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/es/madrid/LEMDResolver
0x69c47De9D...Current numerical weather prediction models from Spain’s AEMET and the ECMWF ensemble indicate a most probable daily maximum temperature of 34–36°C for Madrid on July 17, aligning directly with the market’s highest implied probabilities on those outcomes. Persistent high-pressure dominance and above-average 850 hPa temperatures across the Iberian interior sustain this range, consistent with July climatology and the ongoing seasonal warming trend documented by AEMET. Ensemble spread remains modest, with limited model disagreement on steering patterns or timing of any weak Atlantic trough that could modestly suppress peaks. Updated short-range guidance and official briefings over the next 48 hours represent the key catalysts that could shift trader consensus ahead of resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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