Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a moderating high-pressure regime over northern France, with surface highs settling near 25–26°C in central Paris on July 19 after the early-July heat dome. Key differentiators include variable low-level moisture, potential afternoon cumulus development that caps insolation, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect under light winds. Historical July maxima average 25–27°C, so traders weigh how slight shifts in 500-hPa heights or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the peak across the tightly bunched 24–26°C brackets. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France’s next bulletin will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHöchste Temperatur in Paris am 19. Juli?
24°C 36%
25°C 34%
26°C 17%
23°C 7.8%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
36%
25°C
34%
26°C
17%
27°C
6%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
24°C 36%
25°C 34%
26°C 17%
23°C 7.8%
21°C or below
<1%
22°C
1%
23°C
8%
24°C
36%
25°C
34%
26°C
17%
27°C
6%
28°C
1%
29°C
1%
30°C
<1%
31°C or higher
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 17, 2026, 1:02 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent model consensus from Météo-France and ECMWF points to a moderating high-pressure regime over northern France, with surface highs settling near 25–26°C in central Paris on July 19 after the early-July heat dome. Key differentiators include variable low-level moisture, potential afternoon cumulus development that caps insolation, and the strength of the urban heat-island effect under light winds. Historical July maxima average 25–27°C, so traders weigh how slight shifts in 500-hPa heights or boundary-layer mixing could nudge the peak across the tightly bunched 24–26°C brackets. Updated high-resolution runs and Météo-France’s next bulletin will likely refine these probabilities before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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