A strong heat dome and associated high-pressure system over western Europe has driven recent model consensus toward a peak temperature of 40–41°C in Paris on June 24, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS showing 10–15°C anomalies above the late-June climatological mean of roughly 23–25°C. Météo-France and BBC forecasts currently align on 40–41°C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow that limits mixing and nocturnal cooling, though modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak insolation keeps probabilities distributed across 38–42°C. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris adds 1–2°C locally, while any slight westward shift in the ridge or increased cloud cover could trim the high by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift the market-implied distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Paris on June 24?
Highest temperature in Paris on June 24?
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$156,287 Vol.
$156,287 Vol.
24. Juni 2026
36°C or below
No
37°C
No
38°C
No
39°C
No
40°C
No
41°C
Yes
42°C
No
43°C
No
44°C
No
45°C
No
46°C or higher
No
41°C 100.0%
36°C or below <1%
37°C <1%
38°C <1%
$156,287 Vol.
$156,287 Vol.
24. Juni 2026
36°C or below
$18,288 Vol.
No
37°C
$14,278 Vol.
No
38°C
$14,858 Vol.
No
39°C
$15,691 Vol.
No
40°C
$28,149 Vol.
No
41°C
$24,939 Vol.
Yes
42°C
$17,817 Vol.
No
43°C
$15,247 Vol.
No
44°C
$2,870 Vol.
No
45°C
$3,099 Vol.
No
46°C or higher
$1,050 Vol.
No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heat dome and associated high-pressure system over western Europe has driven recent model consensus toward a peak temperature of 40–41°C in Paris on June 24, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS showing 10–15°C anomalies above the late-June climatological mean of roughly 23–25°C. Météo-France and BBC forecasts currently align on 40–41°C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow that limits mixing and nocturnal cooling, though modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak insolation keeps probabilities distributed across 38–42°C. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris adds 1–2°C locally, while any slight westward shift in the ridge or increased cloud cover could trim the high by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift the market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Jun 22, 2026, 12:06 AM ET
Volumen
$156,287Enddatum
24. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 22, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.A strong heat dome and associated high-pressure system over western Europe has driven recent model consensus toward a peak temperature of 40–41°C in Paris on June 24, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS showing 10–15°C anomalies above the late-June climatological mean of roughly 23–25°C. Météo-France and BBC forecasts currently align on 40–41°C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow that limits mixing and nocturnal cooling, though modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak insolation keeps probabilities distributed across 38–42°C. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris adds 1–2°C locally, while any slight westward shift in the ridge or increased cloud cover could trim the high by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift the market-implied distribution.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the highest temperature recorded at the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station in degrees Celsius on 24 Jun '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day for the Paris-Le Bourget Airport Station, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/bonneuil-en-france/LFPB.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve until the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$156,287Enddatum
24. Juni 2026Markt eröffnet
Jun 22, 2026, 12:06 AM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: No
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: No
A strong heat dome and associated high-pressure system over western Europe has driven recent model consensus toward a peak temperature of 40–41°C in Paris on June 24, with ensemble guidance from ECMWF and GFS showing 10–15°C anomalies above the late-June climatological mean of roughly 23–25°C. Météo-France and BBC forecasts currently align on 40–41°C under mostly clear skies and light easterly flow that limits mixing and nocturnal cooling, though modest spread in boundary-layer moisture and exact timing of peak insolation keeps probabilities distributed across 38–42°C. Urban heat-island amplification in central Paris adds 1–2°C locally, while any slight westward shift in the ridge or increased cloud cover could trim the high by 2–3°C. Updated model runs and official Météo-France briefings over the next 48 hours remain the key variables that could shift the market-implied distribution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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