Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF drive trader consensus toward 11-13°C highs for Paris on March 25, with 11°C leading at 31% amid mild westerly airflow and scattered clouds limiting solar heating. These closely matched odds reflect model spread—ECMWF mean around 12°C, GFS slightly cooler at 11°C—against March climatological norms of 11-12°C maxima. Recent updates show weakening high-pressure ridge, capping extremes; low probabilities for 7°C or below (2.1%) or 17°C+ (2.1%) align with absent cold snaps or heat surges in upper-air patterns. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution-defining convective risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Paris on March 25?
Highest temperature in Paris on March 25?
13°C 33%
11°C 31%
12°C 27%
10°C 17%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
17%
9°C
16%
10°C
17%
11°C
31%
12°C
27%
13°C
30%
14°C
16%
15°C
14%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
2%
13°C 33%
11°C 31%
12°C 27%
10°C 17%
7°C or below
2%
8°C
17%
9°C
16%
10°C
17%
11°C
31%
12°C
27%
13°C
30%
14°C
16%
15°C
14%
16°C
12%
17°C or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Charles de Gaulle Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPG.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:01 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/fr/paris/LFPGResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Météo-France and ECMWF drive trader consensus toward 11-13°C highs for Paris on March 25, with 11°C leading at 31% amid mild westerly airflow and scattered clouds limiting solar heating. These closely matched odds reflect model spread—ECMWF mean around 12°C, GFS slightly cooler at 11°C—against March climatological norms of 11-12°C maxima. Recent updates show weakening high-pressure ridge, capping extremes; low probabilities for 7°C or below (2.1%) or 17°C+ (2.1%) align with absent cold snaps or heat surges in upper-air patterns. Traders eye afternoon updates for resolution-defining convective risks.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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