Ensemble weather models like the GFS and ECMWF ensembles currently cluster Austin's March 25 high temperature around 86-93°F, driving the tight race among those bins at 17% implied odds each, while capping 102°F+ at just 5.5% due to insufficient upper-level ridge strength for extremes. Trader sentiment tilts slightly toward 83°F or below (25.5%) amid NWS forecast uncertainty from potential mid-afternoon cloud cover and a weak cold front's timing, which could shave 3-5°F off peaks based on analogous March setups. Diurnal heating under southerly winds favors 88-91°F as baseline, but model spread of ±4°F reflects microphysics variances in boundary layer moisture, differentiating the closely matched outcomes. Watch 00z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · AktualisiertHighest temperature in Austin on March 25?
Highest temperature in Austin on March 25?
83°F or below 26%
86-87°F 17%
88-89°F 17%
90-91°F 17%
83°F or below
26%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
17%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
12%
102°F or higher
2%
83°F or below 26%
86-87°F 17%
88-89°F 17%
90-91°F 17%
83°F or below
26%
84-85°F
17%
86-87°F
17%
88-89°F
17%
90-91°F
17%
92-93°F
17%
94-95°F
17%
96-97°F
17%
98-99°F
14%
100-101°F
12%
102°F or higher
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Austin-Bergstrom International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUS.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 21, 2026, 6:30 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/tx/austin/KAUSResolver
0x69c47De9D...Ensemble weather models like the GFS and ECMWF ensembles currently cluster Austin's March 25 high temperature around 86-93°F, driving the tight race among those bins at 17% implied odds each, while capping 102°F+ at just 5.5% due to insufficient upper-level ridge strength for extremes. Trader sentiment tilts slightly toward 83°F or below (25.5%) amid NWS forecast uncertainty from potential mid-afternoon cloud cover and a weak cold front's timing, which could shave 3-5°F off peaks based on analogous March setups. Diurnal heating under southerly winds favors 88-91°F as baseline, but model spread of ±4°F reflects microphysics variances in boundary layer moisture, differentiating the closely matched outcomes. Watch 00z updates for resolution shifts.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten · Aktualisiert
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