Recent numerical weather prediction runs from global models including ECMWF and GFS indicate maximum temperatures in Tel Aviv on September 6 will likely peak in the 30–32°C range under mostly clear skies and light westerly flow typical of early September. This consensus supports the tightly clustered market-implied odds around 29–33°C, as small differences in afternoon heating timing, boundary-layer mixing, and local sea-breeze effects can shift the daily high by 1–2°C. Historical climatology for the date centers near 29°C, providing a baseline, while the low probabilities assigned to extremes reflect limited potential for significant deviation given stable synoptic conditions and absence of anomalous ridging or cooling advection. Updated model guidance later today will further constrain resolution criteria for the official highest temperature.