As of early August 2026, 23–29 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin. Primary drivers include long-serving members such as Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson citing age and tenure, alongside others pursuing Senate, gubernatorial, or other offices. Recent announcements through mid-2026, including Wilson's May retirement and additional primary losses or withdrawals, have stabilized the count near the lower end of historical ranges for midterms. Trader positioning reflects expectations of limited further Democratic exits before filing deadlines, given fewer remaining high-profile older members and competitive incentives in targeted districts, while broader Republican retirements exceed Democratic totals. Resolution depends on final confirmed lists excluding any late reversals or special circumstances.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert20–23 45.5%
24–27 38%
28–31 14%
<20 7.2%
$36,316 Vol.
$36,316 Vol.
<20
7%
20–23
44%
24–27
28%
28–31
14%
32–35
7%
36–39
6%
40+
6%
20–23 45.5%
24–27 38%
28–31 14%
<20 7.2%
$36,316 Vol.
$36,316 Vol.
<20
7%
20–23
44%
24–27
28%
28–31
14%
32–35
7%
36–39
6%
40+
6%
This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.
For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)
Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.
This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.
The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Resolver
0x2F5e3684c...As of early August 2026, 23–29 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin. Primary drivers include long-serving members such as Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson citing age and tenure, alongside others pursuing Senate, gubernatorial, or other offices. Recent announcements through mid-2026, including Wilson's May retirement and additional primary losses or withdrawals, have stabilized the count near the lower end of historical ranges for midterms. Trader positioning reflects expectations of limited further Democratic exits before filing deadlines, given fewer remaining high-profile older members and competitive incentives in targeted districts, while broader Republican retirements exceed Democratic totals. Resolution depends on final confirmed lists excluding any late reversals or special circumstances.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert


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