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icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·Kongress

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·Kongress

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

20–23 45.5%

24–27 38%

28–31 14%

<20 7.2%

Polymarket

$36,316 Vol.

20–23 45.5%

24–27 38%

28–31 14%

<20 7.2%

Polymarket

$36,316 Vol.

<20

$17,296 Vol.

7%

20–23

$6,722 Vol.

44%

24–27

$4,702 Vol.

28%

28–31

$1,421 Vol.

14%

32–35

$4,070 Vol.

7%

36–39

$934 Vol.

6%

40+

$1,171 Vol.

6%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, 23–29 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin. Primary drivers include long-serving members such as Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson citing age and tenure, alongside others pursuing Senate, gubernatorial, or other offices. Recent announcements through mid-2026, including Wilson's May retirement and additional primary losses or withdrawals, have stabilized the count near the lower end of historical ranges for midterms. Trader positioning reflects expectations of limited further Democratic exits before filing deadlines, given fewer remaining high-profile older members and competitive incentives in targeted districts, while broader Republican retirements exceed Democratic totals. Resolution depends on final confirmed lists excluding any late reversals or special circumstances.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$36,316
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, 23–29 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 bin. Primary drivers include long-serving members such as Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and Frederica Wilson citing age and tenure, alongside others pursuing Senate, gubernatorial, or other offices. Recent announcements through mid-2026, including Wilson's May retirement and additional primary losses or withdrawals, have stabilized the count near the lower end of historical ranges for midterms. Trader positioning reflects expectations of limited further Democratic exits before filing deadlines, given fewer remaining high-profile older members and competitive incentives in targeted districts, while broader Republican retirements exceed Democratic totals. Resolution depends on final confirmed lists excluding any late reversals or special circumstances.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$36,316
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

icon for Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

79%
Ja
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Wird die Anzahl der republikanischen Senatsmitglieder, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, genau 7 betragen?

81%
Ja
icon for Werden demokratische Amtsinhaber im Repräsentantenhaus in sieben bis neun Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?

Werden demokratische Amtsinhaber im Repräsentantenhaus in sieben bis neun Nominierungswahlen im Zyklus 2026 nicht gewinnen?

53%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „20–23" mit 44%, gefolgt von „24–27" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 44¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist „20–23" mit 44%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 44% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „24–27" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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