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icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·Kongress

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?
Politik·Kongress

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

20–23 68.0%

24–27 15%

40+ 5.1%

<20 4.0%

Polymarket

$51,365 Vol.

20–23 68.0%

24–27 15%

40+ 5.1%

<20 4.0%

Polymarket

$51,365 Vol.

<20

$18,040 Vol.

4%

20–23

$12,536 Vol.

68%

24–27

$10,485 Vol.

15%

28–31

$2,206 Vol.

1%

32–35

$4,727 Vol.

1%

36–39

$1,496 Vol.

<1%

40+

$1,874 Vol.

5%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic House retirements and departures from re-election bids have stabilized near 23 incumbents as of late August 2026, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 outcome.** Ballotpedia and other trackers list exactly 23 Democrats not seeking another House term, including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Lloyd Doggett, and Frederica Wilson, with announcements spanning late 2025 through mid-2026. Several are shifting to Senate or gubernatorial races, while others cite age, generational transition, or unfavorable redistricting. Final candidate filing deadlines across states, concentrated in late August, will determine the precise total, incorporating any last-minute primary losses or withdrawals. This tally reflects typical midterm churn without a surge in additional exits, keeping higher ranges like 24–27 or 40+ at lower implied probabilities.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$51,365
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.**Democratic House retirements and departures from re-election bids have stabilized near 23 incumbents as of late August 2026, aligning with the market's leading 20–23 outcome.** Ballotpedia and other trackers list exactly 23 Democrats not seeking another House term, including long-serving members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, Lloyd Doggett, and Frederica Wilson, with announcements spanning late 2025 through mid-2026. Several are shifting to Senate or gubernatorial races, while others cite age, generational transition, or unfavorable redistricting. Final candidate filing deadlines across states, concentrated in late August, will determine the precise total, incorporating any last-minute primary losses or withdrawals. This tally reflects typical midterm churn without a surge in additional exits, keeping higher ranges like 24–27 or 40+ at lower implied probabilities.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$51,365
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET

Resolver

0x2F5e3684c...
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Verwandte

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Wird die Zahl der republikanischen Mitglieder des Repräsentantenhauses, die 2026 in den Ruhestand gehen, zwischen 36 und 39 liegen (einschließlich)?

92%
Ja
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86%
Ja
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Werden demokratische Abgeordnete im Repräsentantenhaus bei den Vorwahlen im Wahlzyklus 2026 in nicht zwischen zehn und zwölf Fällen gewinnen?

75%
Ja

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

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„Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „20–23" mit 68%, gefolgt von „24–27" mit 15%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 68¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 68% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $51.4K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 12, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist „20–23" mit 68%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 68% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „24–27" mit 15%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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