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icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

icon for Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?

20–23 45.5%

24–27 28%

28–31 12%

32–35 9.1%

Polymarket

$36,332 Vol.

20–23 45.5%

24–27 28%

28–31 12%

32–35 9.1%

Polymarket

$36,332 Vol.

<20

$17,296 Vol.

8%

20–23

$6,738 Vol.

32%

24–27

$4,702 Vol.

28%

28–31

$1,421 Vol.

12%

32–35

$4,070 Vol.

9%

36–39

$934 Vol.

6%

40+

$1,171 Vol.

6%

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, 23 to 27 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the market’s leading ranges. Ballotpedia and AP tracking show this total includes outright retirements by veteran members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and Jerry Nadler, plus departures to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Additional announcements continue at a steady pace typical of the cycle, but no surge of late exits has materialized. Traders appear to price in modest further retirements before filing deadlines while viewing the current tally as the primary driver of implied probabilities around the 20–27 band.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$36,332
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.As of early August 2026, 23 to 27 Democratic House incumbents have announced they will not seek re-election, aligning closely with the market’s leading ranges. Ballotpedia and AP tracking show this total includes outright retirements by veteran members such as Nancy Pelosi, Steny Hoyer, Jan Schakowsky, and Jerry Nadler, plus departures to pursue Senate or gubernatorial bids. Additional announcements continue at a steady pace typical of the cycle, but no surge of late exits has materialized. Traders appear to price in modest further retirements before filing deadlines while viewing the current tally as the primary driver of implied probabilities around the 20–27 band.

The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026.

This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026.

For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if:
• They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat
• They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat
• They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus)

Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market.

This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026.

The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$36,332
Enddatum
31. Aug. 2026
Markt eröffnet
Dec 12, 2025, 6:36 PM ET
The 2026 U.S. general elections for Congress are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve according to the total number of Democratic members of the U.S. House of Representatives who are considered to be retiring or not seeking reelection in 2026. For the purposes of this market, a member may be considered not to seek reelection if: • They publicly announce they are retiring from Congress and will not run for reelection to their current seat • They choose to run for a different elected office in 2026 instead of running for reelection to their current seat • They do not seek their party’s nomination for reelection to their current seat, meaning they neither file for reelection nor participate in their party’s nominating process (such as a primary, convention, or caucus) Only members whose current term is scheduled to end with the 2026 regular election for the House may qualify for this market. This market will not resolve until after the relevant final 2026 candidate filing deadline has passed in all states, which is expected to occur in late August 2026. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Vorsicht bei externen Links.

Häufig gestellte Fragen

„Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist ein Prognosemarkt auf Polymarket mit 7 möglichen Ergebnissen, bei dem Händler Anteile auf Basis ihrer Einschätzung kaufen und verkaufen. Das aktuell führende Ergebnis ist „20–23" mit 32%, gefolgt von „24–27" mit 28%. Die Preise spiegeln Echtzeit-Wahrscheinlichkeiten der Community wider. Ein Anteilspreis von 32¢ bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 32% zuweist. Diese Quoten ändern sich laufend, wenn Händler auf neue Entwicklungen reagieren. Anteile am richtigen Ergebnis können bei Marktauflösung für jeweils $1 eingelöst werden.

Stand heute hat „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ein Gesamthandelsvolumen von $36.3K generiert, seit der Markt am Dec 12, 2025 gestartet wurde. Dieses Aktivitätsniveau spiegelt starkes Engagement der Polymarket-Community wider und stellt sicher, dass die aktuellen Quoten von einem breiten Pool an Marktteilnehmern geprägt werden. Sie können Live-Preisbewegungen verfolgen und direkt auf dieser Seite auf jedes Ergebnis handeln.

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Der aktuelle Favorit für „Wie viele Mitglieder des Demokratischen Repräsentantenhauses werden 2026 nicht kandidieren?" ist „20–23" mit 32%, was bedeutet, dass der Markt diesem Ergebnis eine Wahrscheinlichkeit von 32% zuweist. Das nächstliegende Ergebnis ist „24–27" mit 28%. Diese Quoten werden in Echtzeit aktualisiert, wenn Händler Anteile kaufen und verkaufen. Schauen Sie regelmäßig vorbei oder speichern Sie diese Seite als Lesezeichen.

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