Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGegen wie viele Länder wird Israel im April militärisch vorgehen?
Gegen wie viele Länder wird Israel im April militärisch vorgehen?
2 68%
3 21%
≥4 14%
$105,794 Vol.
$105,794 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
2
68%
3
21%
≥4
14%
2 68%
3 21%
≥4 14%
$105,794 Vol.
$105,794 Vol.
30. Apr. 2026
2
$26,703 Vol.
68%
3
$31,228 Vol.
21%
≥4
$40,396 Vol.
14%
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Markt eröffnet: Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ET
Volumen
$105,794Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
This market will resolve according to the total number of different sovereign UN member states' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between April 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and April 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country where the embassy or consulate is located, not towards the country they represent.
Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of market creation, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution.
For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting.
Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage.
Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify.
The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
Volumen
$105,794Enddatum
30. Apr. 2026Markt eröffnet
Mar 27, 2026, 6:46 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus favors two countries at 67.5% implied probability, driven by Israel's confirmed airstrikes on Iranian military sites in early April—such as missile facilities and the Parchin complex—and sustained operations against Hezbollah targets across southern Lebanon, Beirut, and the Bekaa Valley through mid-April. These actions stem from the 2026 Iran war's escalation, with Hezbollah launching over 3,000 rockets since March, prompting IDF responses despite a fragile ceasefire announced around April 8 that has produced only a partial lull in Iran strikes. Lower odds on three (22%) or more reflect de-escalation signals, including Israel-Lebanon talks and U.S.-enforced naval blockade on Iran, diminishing prospects for new fronts like Syria or Yemen absent major provocations before month's end.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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