Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote in Idaho's 2nd District, advancing to face Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's R+13 Partisan Voter Index and Simpson's consistent reelection margins above 60% in prior cycles underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign shifts since the primaries. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated Democratic turnout in Boise-area counties represent the primary variables that could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to anchor the strong Republican positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertID-02 Wahlsieger
ID-02 Wahlsieger
$34,369 Vol.
$34,369 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
95%
Demokratische Partei
6%
$34,369 Vol.
$34,369 Vol.
2. Nov. 2026
Republikanische Partei
$14,241 Vol.
95%
Demokratische Partei
$20,128 Vol.
6%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote in Idaho's 2nd District, advancing to face Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's R+13 Partisan Voter Index and Simpson's consistent reelection margins above 60% in prior cycles underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign shifts since the primaries. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated Democratic turnout in Boise-area counties represent the primary variables that could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to anchor the strong Republican positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Markt eröffnet: Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ET
Volumen
$34,369Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote in Idaho's 2nd District, advancing to face Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's R+13 Partisan Voter Index and Simpson's consistent reelection margins above 60% in prior cycles underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign shifts since the primaries. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated Democratic turnout in Boise-area counties represent the primary variables that could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to anchor the strong Republican positioning.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the ID-02 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$34,369Enddatum
3. Nov. 2026Markt eröffnet
Jan 28, 2026, 11:08 AM ETAbwickler
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Republican Mike Simpson secured his party's nomination in the May 2026 primary with 63% of the vote in Idaho's 2nd District, advancing to face Democrat Elinor Gilbreath in the November general election. The district's R+13 Partisan Voter Index and Simpson's consistent reelection margins above 60% in prior cycles underpin trader consensus favoring a Republican hold. Forecasters across outlets rate the seat Solid or Safe Republican, reflecting limited Democratic infrastructure and the absence of competitive polling or major campaign shifts since the primaries. A national Democratic surge exceeding historical midterm patterns, an unforeseen scandal, or sharply elevated Democratic turnout in Boise-area counties represent the primary variables that could narrow the outcome, though structural factors continue to anchor the strong Republican positioning.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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