Recent June CPI data, featuring a sharper-than-expected 0.4% monthly decline that lowered the annual rate to 3.5%, has shaped expectations for July's print by highlighting easing energy costs and favorable base effects. Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of August 4 project July headline CPI at +0.09% month-over-month and 3.42% year-over-year, aligning with the market's 67% implied probability for ≥0.1% and supporting the 23% odds on flat 0.0%. Traders are pricing in continued moderation ahead of the August 12 BLS release, though risks from shelter components, potential Middle East energy volatility, and labor-market resilience could influence the final outcome. Aggregated real-money bets reflect consensus around this modest uptick rather than deeper disinflation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert≥0,1 % 67%
0,0 % 23%
-0,1 % 5.4%
≤-0,7 % <1%
$140,989 Vol.
$140,989 Vol.
≤-0,7 %
1%
-0,6 %
<1%
-0,5 %
<1%
-0,4 %
<1%
-0,3 %
<1%
-0,2 %
<1%
-0,1 %
5%
0,0 %
23%
≥0,1 %
67%
≥0,1 % 67%
0,0 % 23%
-0,1 % 5.4%
≤-0,7 % <1%
$140,989 Vol.
$140,989 Vol.
≤-0,7 %
1%
-0,6 %
<1%
-0,5 %
<1%
-0,4 %
<1%
-0,3 %
<1%
-0,2 %
<1%
-0,1 %
5%
0,0 %
23%
≥0,1 %
67%
This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Markt eröffnet: Jul 14, 2026, 1:39 PM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve to the one-month percent change in the seasonally adjusted Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) in July 2026 according to the monthly BLS report.
The resolution source for this market will be the BLS Consumer Price Index report released for July 2026 (https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/cpi.htm), currently scheduled to be released on August 12, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data.
Note: the resolution source for this market will be the official monthly Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers (CPI-U) which BLS reports to one decimal point (e.g. 0.4%). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
If the BLS does not release the relevant figures on the scheduled date, this market may remain open up until the scheduled release time of the next CPI report (https://www.bls.gov/schedule). If the information is not released by that time, this market will resolve according to the figures of the most recent previous month with available data.
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent June CPI data, featuring a sharper-than-expected 0.4% monthly decline that lowered the annual rate to 3.5%, has shaped expectations for July's print by highlighting easing energy costs and favorable base effects. Cleveland Fed nowcasts as of August 4 project July headline CPI at +0.09% month-over-month and 3.42% year-over-year, aligning with the market's 67% implied probability for ≥0.1% and supporting the 23% odds on flat 0.0%. Traders are pricing in continued moderation ahead of the August 12 BLS release, though risks from shelter components, potential Middle East energy volatility, and labor-market resilience could influence the final outcome. Aggregated real-money bets reflect consensus around this modest uptick rather than deeper disinflation.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert

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