Recent disinflation in Mexico, with the July 2026 headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since 2020—has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.50–3.99% range for full-year average inflation at 38.4% implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, reflecting persistent services and goods pressures, while Banxico's 6.50% policy rate pause and upward-revised 2026 forecasts (around 3.5–4.1% by year-end per BBVA and central bank projections) introduce uncertainty between the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Weak domestic demand, subdued energy prices, and convergence toward the 3% target by late 2027 support the tight spread, though any reacceleration in core components or external shocks could shift odds toward higher ranges ahead of key data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert3,50 % bis 3,99 % 39.9%
4,00 % bis 4,49 % 29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 8%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 7.3%
$63,958 Vol.
$63,958 Vol.
8. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
1%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
5%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
38%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
8%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
4%
5,50 %+
3%
3,50 % bis 3,99 % 39.9%
4,00 % bis 4,49 % 29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 % 8%
3,00 % bis 3,49 % 7.3%
$63,958 Vol.
$63,958 Vol.
8. Jan. 2027
<2,50 %
$1,061 Vol.
1%
2,50 % bis 2,99 %
$4,895 Vol.
5%
3,00 % bis 3,49 %
$28,329 Vol.
7%
3,50 % bis 3,99 %
$3,844 Vol.
38%
4,00 % bis 4,49 %
$12,313 Vol.
29%
4,50 % bis 4,99 %
$4,752 Vol.
8%
5,00 % bis 5,49 %
$2,452 Vol.
4%
5,50 %+
$6,313 Vol.
3%
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with the July 2026 headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since 2020—has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.50–3.99% range for full-year average inflation at 38.4% implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, reflecting persistent services and goods pressures, while Banxico's 6.50% policy rate pause and upward-revised 2026 forecasts (around 3.5–4.1% by year-end per BBVA and central bank projections) introduce uncertainty between the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Weak domestic demand, subdued energy prices, and convergence toward the 3% target by late 2027 support the tight spread, though any reacceleration in core components or external shocks could shift odds toward higher ranges ahead of key data releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Markt eröffnet: Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ET
Volumen
$63,958Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendarioRecent disinflation in Mexico, with the July 2026 headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since 2020—has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.50–3.99% range for full-year average inflation at 38.4% implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, reflecting persistent services and goods pressures, while Banxico's 6.50% policy rate pause and upward-revised 2026 forecasts (around 3.5–4.1% by year-end per BBVA and central bank projections) introduce uncertainty between the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Weak domestic demand, subdued energy prices, and convergence toward the 3% target by late 2027 support the tight spread, though any reacceleration in core components or external shocks could shift odds toward higher ranges ahead of key data releases.
This is a market about the variation of consumer prices in Mexico over the 12-month period ending December 2026, as reported by the Mexican National Institute of Statistics and Geography (INEGI).
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
This market will resolve according to the percentage change in Mexico’s Consumer Price Index over the 12-month period ending December 2026 (annual inflation for the month of December 2026), according to the monthly INEGI National Consumer Price Index (INPC) report for the specified month.
The resolution source for this market will be the INEGI INPC report released for December 2026, expected to be released in January 2027. Resolution of this market will take place upon release of the aforementioned data. If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
The relevant report will be made available upon release at: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/
Note: This market’s resolution source reports percentage change in the Mexican Consumer Price Index to two decimal points (e.g. 2.01%). Thus this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving this market. For the full release schedule, see: https://en.www.inegi.org.mx/app/saladeprensa/calendario
Volumen
$63,958Enddatum
8. Jan. 2027Markt eröffnet
Feb 9, 2026, 6:37 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Recent disinflation in Mexico, with the July 2026 headline CPI easing to 3.12% year-over-year from 3.37% in June—the lowest reading since 2020—has anchored trader sentiment toward the 3.50–3.99% range for full-year average inflation at 38.4% implied probability. Core inflation remains elevated near 4%, reflecting persistent services and goods pressures, while Banxico's 6.50% policy rate pause and upward-revised 2026 forecasts (around 3.5–4.1% by year-end per BBVA and central bank projections) introduce uncertainty between the 3.50–3.99% and 4.00–4.49% buckets. Weak domestic demand, subdued energy prices, and convergence toward the 3% target by late 2027 support the tight spread, though any reacceleration in core components or external shocks could shift odds toward higher ranges ahead of key data releases.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Häufig gestellte Fragen