Recent forecasts from multiple models, including Met Office and YR, indicate Ankara's overnight low on August 31 will likely fall in the 13–15 °C range under clear to partly cloudy skies and light northerly flow. This aligns with the city's typical late-August radiative cooling at roughly 900 m elevation, where calm conditions allow surface heat to escape efficiently after daytime highs near 26–29 °C. A recent cool spell—with observed lows dipping to 12–13 °C on August 29–30 amid northerly winds and increased cloud cover—has nudged trader sentiment toward the 11 °C-or-below outcome at 48.5 % implied probability, reflecting caution about possible further advection of cooler air or clearer skies enhancing minimum temperatures. Broader market distribution across 12–16 °C bins (each ~24–25 %) captures remaining forecast spread from ensemble variability, while lower probabilities for 18 °C+ outcomes acknowledge the limited likelihood of significant warming before month-end. New model runs and official Turkish Meteorological Service guidance expected in the next 24–48 hours will likely tighten these ranges ahead of market resolution.