Current forecasts from the Met Office and supporting models indicate a minimum temperature near 13–15°C overnight into August 31 under a westerly flow of cooler Atlantic air, with scattered showers and moderate winds limiting radiative cooling. This setup follows an unsettled late-August pattern that has kept overnight lows close to or slightly above the 1991–2020 climatological average of roughly 13°C. Trader consensus clusters tightly on 15–16°C because ensemble spreads and minor timing differences in cloud cover or wind shifts can easily move the observed low by 1–2°C, while lower outcomes (13–14°C) retain meaningful probability if clearer skies develop briefly. The market-implied odds therefore reflect the narrow but genuine uncertainty in the final 24–48 hours of guidance ahead of resolution.