The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertNiedrigste Temperatur in San Francisco am 12. September?
Niedrigste Temperatur in San Francisco am 12. September?
60-61°F 99%
49°F oder darunter 20%
56-57°F 20%
58-59°F 20%
$491 Vol.
$491 Vol.
12. Sep. 2026
49°F oder darunter
Nein
50-51°F
Nein
52-53°F
Nein
54-55°F
Nein
56-57°F
Nein
58-59°F
Nein
60-61°F
Ja
62-63°F
Nein
64-65 °F
Nein
66-67°F
Nein
68°F oder höher
Nein
60-61°F 99%
49°F oder darunter 20%
56-57°F 20%
58-59°F 20%
$491 Vol.
$491 Vol.
12. Sep. 2026
49°F oder darunter
$0 Vol.
Nein
50-51°F
$25 Vol.
Nein
52-53°F
$35 Vol.
Nein
54-55°F
$35 Vol.
Nein
56-57°F
$91 Vol.
Nein
58-59°F
$15 Vol.
Nein
60-61°F
$290 Vol.
Ja
62-63°F
$0 Vol.
Nein
64-65 °F
$0 Vol.
Nein
66-67°F
$0 Vol.
Nein
68°F oder höher
$0 Vol.
Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Markt eröffnet: Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ET
Volumen
$491Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
This market will resolve to the temperature range that contains the lowest temperature recorded by NOAA at the San Francisco International Airport Station in degrees Fahrenheit on 12 Sep '26.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the lowest reading under the "Temp" column for all times on this day, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfo
This market will resolve off of the Hourly Data provided using the "Show Hourly Data" button.
If NOAA data for the observation date is unavailable by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, the Weather Underground Daily Observations table will be used as the resolution source.
In the event that there is no data for the observation date by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to US Units w/ kts" button until the relevant table displays °F.
This market will resolve once the first data point for the following date has been published on the resolution source, or by 11:59 PM ET on the day following the observation date, whichever comes first.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Revisions to temperatures recorded within this market's timeframe will be considered until the first datapoint for the following date has been published, after which any alterations will not be considered.
Volumen
$491Enddatum
12. Sep. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 10, 2026, 7:29 AM ETAbwicklungsquelle
https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=ksfoAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Vorgeschlagenes Ergebnis: Nein
Kein Einspruch
Endgültiges Ergebnis: Nein
The dominant 90% implied probability for a 60-61°F low on September 12 stems from National Weather Service observations at key San Francisco stations confirming a minimum in that narrow range. Coastal moderation by the cold California Current and marine layer typically caps overnight drops, producing average September lows near 56°F, yet recent conditions featuring lighter onshore flow, reduced cloud cover, and minimal cold-air advection kept temperatures elevated through the night. This outcome sits well above historical extremes like the 49°F record while aligning with the period's mild pattern, giving traders strong confidence in the resolution criteria based on verified station data rather than model projections.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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