Current mid-August Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km²—9th lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF analyses—combined with regional melt patterns positions the September minimum most likely in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range that dominates market-implied odds. Early-season losses were pronounced on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas), yet slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas have moderated overall decline since late July. Statistical outlooks incorporating 2007–2025 trajectories and current anomalies indicate a probable September value within the post-2007 envelope of roughly 4.0–5.5 million km². Remaining August–September weather variability, including potential high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or stall melt, introduces the main uncertainty separating the closely matched leading bins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertMinimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
Minimale Ausdehnung des arktischen Meereises in diesem Sommer?
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm 36.4%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 33.1%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 18.1%
<4 Mio. km² 8%
$68,985 Vol.
$68,985 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
<4 Mio. km²
8%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
5%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
18%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
33%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
36%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
5%
5 Mio.+ qkm
7%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm 36.4%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km² 33.1%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km² 18.1%
<4 Mio. km² 8%
$68,985 Vol.
$68,985 Vol.
30. Sep. 2026
<4 Mio. km²
$30,910 Vol.
8%
4,0–4,2 Mio. km²
$6,738 Vol.
5%
4,2–4,4 Mio. km²
$3,116 Vol.
18%
4,4–4,6 Mio. km²
$3,154 Vol.
33%
4,6–4,8 Mio. qkm
$6,969 Vol.
36%
4,8-5 Mio. qkm
$3,595 Vol.
5%
5 Mio.+ qkm
$14,503 Vol.
7%
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current mid-August Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km²—9th lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF analyses—combined with regional melt patterns positions the September minimum most likely in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range that dominates market-implied odds. Early-season losses were pronounced on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas), yet slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas have moderated overall decline since late July. Statistical outlooks incorporating 2007–2025 trajectories and current anomalies indicate a probable September value within the post-2007 envelope of roughly 4.0–5.5 million km². Remaining August–September weather variability, including potential high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or stall melt, introduces the main uncertainty separating the closely matched leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Markt eröffnet: Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ET
Volumen
$68,985Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.Current mid-August Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km²—9th lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF analyses—combined with regional melt patterns positions the September minimum most likely in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range that dominates market-implied odds. Early-season losses were pronounced on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas), yet slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas have moderated overall decline since late July. Statistical outlooks incorporating 2007–2025 trajectories and current anomalies indicate a probable September value within the post-2007 envelope of roughly 4.0–5.5 million km². Remaining August–September weather variability, including potential high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or stall melt, introduces the main uncertainty separating the closely matched leading bins.
This market will resolve according to the minimum Arctic sea ice extent for all days between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026, as published by the National Snow and Ice Data Center.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
This market will remain open until data has been published for October 1, 2026, at which point it will resolve immediately. Any revisions to sea ice extent recorded after data is published for October 1, 2026 will not be considered.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to thousands of square kilometers (e.g. 4.255 million sq km). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market will be information from the National Snow and Ice Data Center, specifically the minimum value recorded for any day between August 1, 2026 and October 1, 2026 in the “NH-Daily-Extent” tab of the “Sea Ice Index Daily Extent” data set, available at https://nsidc.org/sea-ice-today/sea-ice-tools. If this resolution source becomes unavailable, another resolution source will be chosen.
Volumen
$68,985Enddatum
1. Okt. 2026Markt eröffnet
Nov 20, 2025, 6:43 PM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Current mid-August Arctic sea ice extent near 7 million km²—9th lowest on record per NSIDC and OSI SAF analyses—combined with regional melt patterns positions the September minimum most likely in the 4.4–4.8 million km² range that dominates market-implied odds. Early-season losses were pronounced on the Atlantic margin (Barents, Kara, Greenland Seas), yet slower retreat and temporary stabilization in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas have moderated overall decline since late July. Statistical outlooks incorporating 2007–2025 trajectories and current anomalies indicate a probable September value within the post-2007 envelope of roughly 4.0–5.5 million km². Remaining August–September weather variability, including potential high-pressure patterns that could accelerate or stall melt, introduces the main uncertainty separating the closely matched leading bins.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
Vorsicht bei externen Links.
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