Mojtaba Khamenei was appointed Iran's Supreme Leader in early March 2026 after his father Ali Khamenei's death in late February U.S.-Israeli strikes that also reportedly injured him. Since then, only written statements have been issued in his name, with state media relying on archival footage or disputed imagery amid ongoing security threats and conflict. Iranian officials and diplomats have cited assassination risks and health concerns as reasons for his continued absence from verified public events, meetings with visible footage, or addresses, fueling speculation over his condition and location. A July 2026 IRGC-released image claimed good health but faced skepticism as potential propaganda, while reports noted private meetings without photographic confirmation. Trader consensus on the timing of a qualifying public appearance reflects uncertainty tied to de-escalation signals, institutional decisions, or shifts in the security environment that could enable or delay such an event.