Netanyahu’s ongoing corruption trial in Israel’s Jerusalem District Court has seen limited recent movement that would shift expectations of a conviction. After completing his 98 days of testimony in late June 2026, the three-judge panel reiterated its earlier assessment of evidentiary weaknesses in the Case 4000 bribery charge and suggested prosecutors consider dropping it. The proceedings have advanced to remaining defense witnesses, followed by closing arguments and a verdict, yet scheduling pressures tied to the presiding judge’s 2028 retirement and ongoing security constraints point to a drawn-out timeline. Traders price the “No” outcome at 73.5 percent, reflecting these procedural hurdles and the absence of developments that would accelerate or strengthen prospects for conviction on the core allegations.