Google, Mistral, and Z.ai lead the market-implied odds for third place on the TextArena math leaderboard at end of November because recent reasoning model releases have produced closely matched performance across competition math and agentic benchmarks. Traders see broad parity among frontier labs after widespread saturation on MATH-500 and AIME-style tasks, with incremental gains from chain-of-thought training and larger context windows driving the tight race rather than any single breakthrough. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot benefit from rapid iteration cycles and cost-efficient scaling, while established players like Meta and Anthropic trade on consistent benchmark leadership and developer ecosystem strength. Resolution hinges on the final November 30 snapshot, so any late model updates or leaderboard adjustments remain key swing factors in this uncertain multi-way contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertGoogle 28%
Z.ai 20%
Alibaba 15.3%
Meta 9.1%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
28%
Z.ai
20%
Alibaba
15%
Meta
9%
Moonshot
9%
Thinky
6%
DeepSeek
8%
StepFun
8%
Anthropic
8%
Baidu
5%
Xiaomi
4%
OpenAI
4%
Microsoft
4%
Bytedance
2%
SpaceXAI
6%
Amazon
9%
Meituan
1%
Nvidia
19%
MiniMax
7%
Tencent
7%
Mistral
9%
Google 28%
Z.ai 20%
Alibaba 15.3%
Meta 9.1%
NEU
NEU
30. Nov. 2026
$72 Vol.
28%
Z.ai
$173 Vol.
20%
Alibaba
$383 Vol.
15%
Meta
$72 Vol.
9%
Moonshot
$150 Vol.
9%
Thinky
$102 Vol.
6%
DeepSeek
$127 Vol.
8%
StepFun
$560 Vol.
8%
Anthropic
$72 Vol.
8%
Baidu
$80 Vol.
5%
Xiaomi
$283 Vol.
4%
OpenAI
$78 Vol.
4%
Microsoft
$77 Vol.
4%
Bytedance
$123 Vol.
2%
SpaceXAI
$118 Vol.
6%
Amazon
$213 Vol.
9%
Meituan
$72 Vol.
1%
Nvidia
$92 Vol.
19%
MiniMax
$85 Vol.
7%
Tencent
$72 Vol.
7%
Mistral
$72 Vol.
9%
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google, Mistral, and Z.ai lead the market-implied odds for third place on the TextArena math leaderboard at end of November because recent reasoning model releases have produced closely matched performance across competition math and agentic benchmarks. Traders see broad parity among frontier labs after widespread saturation on MATH-500 and AIME-style tasks, with incremental gains from chain-of-thought training and larger context windows driving the tight race rather than any single breakthrough. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot benefit from rapid iteration cycles and cost-efficient scaling, while established players like Meta and Anthropic trade on consistent benchmark leadership and developer ecosystem strength. Resolution hinges on the final November 30 snapshot, so any late model updates or leaderboard adjustments remain key swing factors in this uncertain multi-way contest.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ET
Volumen
$3,076Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".Google, Mistral, and Z.ai lead the market-implied odds for third place on the TextArena math leaderboard at end of November because recent reasoning model releases have produced closely matched performance across competition math and agentic benchmarks. Traders see broad parity among frontier labs after widespread saturation on MATH-500 and AIME-style tasks, with incremental gains from chain-of-thought training and larger context windows driving the tight race rather than any single breakthrough. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot benefit from rapid iteration cycles and cost-efficient scaling, while established players like Meta and Anthropic trade on consistent benchmark leadership and developer ecosystem strength. Resolution hinges on the final November 30 snapshot, so any late model updates or leaderboard adjustments remain key swing factors in this uncertain multi-way contest.
This market will resolve according to the third-highest ranked Company based on the arena.ai Text Arena (Math) when the table under the "Leaderboard" tab filtered for "Labs" is checked on November 30, 2026, 12:00 PM ET.
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Math" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/text/math-no-style-control?rankBy=labs with style control off (Adjustments: None) and filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by their Arena score, including any underlying, unrounded, granular values reflected in the data below the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., if the two models are tied by exact arena score, “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies third place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Text Arena (Math). If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Volumen
$3,076Enddatum
1. Dez. 2026Markt eröffnet
Sep 17, 2026, 8:05 PM ETAbwickler
0x69c47De9D...Google, Mistral, and Z.ai lead the market-implied odds for third place on the TextArena math leaderboard at end of November because recent reasoning model releases have produced closely matched performance across competition math and agentic benchmarks. Traders see broad parity among frontier labs after widespread saturation on MATH-500 and AIME-style tasks, with incremental gains from chain-of-thought training and larger context windows driving the tight race rather than any single breakthrough. Chinese labs such as Alibaba and Moonshot benefit from rapid iteration cycles and cost-efficient scaling, while established players like Meta and Anthropic trade on consistent benchmark leadership and developer ecosystem strength. Resolution hinges on the final November 30 snapshot, so any late model updates or leaderboard adjustments remain key swing factors in this uncertain multi-way contest.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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