OpenAI’s early September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra (Max), which claimed the Code Arena WebDev top spot with an Elo score around 1,800 and a 35-point lead over rivals, has reshaped trader views on second place by end of November. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) and Opus 5 models currently hold the next positions through strong multi-step reasoning and agentic web-dev performance, yet the market shows closely matched implied odds across labs because further releases or leaderboard shifts could alter rankings. Chinese contenders such as Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot’s Kimi series, and Meta’s Muse Spark models compete effectively on the cost-performance Pareto frontier but trail in absolute crowdsourced scores from over 650,000 votes on full-stack tasks. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model updates and continued voting that could tighten or widen gaps before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · AktualisiertOpenAI 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
DeepSeek 26%
Tencent 26%

OpenAI
26%

SpaceXAI
26%

DeepSeek
26%

Tencent
26%

ByteDance
14%

Alibaba
14%

Thinky
14%

Mistral
14%

Anthropic
14%

Z.ai
14%

MiniMax
14%

Xiaomi
14%

13%

Poolside
13%

Meta
9%

Moonshot
8%
OpenAI 26%
SpaceXAI 26%
DeepSeek 26%
Tencent 26%

OpenAI
26%

SpaceXAI
26%

DeepSeek
26%

Tencent
26%

ByteDance
14%

Alibaba
14%

Thinky
14%

Mistral
14%

Anthropic
14%

Z.ai
14%

MiniMax
14%

Xiaomi
14%

13%

Poolside
13%

Meta
9%

Moonshot
8%
Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Markt eröffnet: Sep 17, 2026, 8:13 PM ET
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...Results from the "Lab Rank" column under the "Code Arena | WebDev" Leaderboard tab at https://arena.ai/leaderboard/code/webdev?rankBy=labs (Overall) filtered for "Labs" will be used to resolve this market.
Note: Models marked “AutoEval” at the applicable check time will not be considered, regardless of whether they display a rank or score.
AI companies will be ordered primarily by their Lab Rank at the market’s check time. If the results based on the lab ranking are ambiguous or unavailable, the relevant AI companies will be ordered according to their highest-ranking AI model in the leaderboard’s “Models” view. If two or more models are tied on rank, they will be ordered by which model is listed higher on the leaderboard. If a tie still remains, alphabetical order of AI lab/company names as listed in this market group will be used as a final tiebreaker (e.g., “Google” would be ranked ahead of “SpaceXAI”). This market will resolve based on the company that occupies second place under this ranking.
The resolution source for this market is the arena.ai Code Arena | WebDev Leaderboard. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "Other".
Abwickler
0x69c47De9D...OpenAI’s early September 2026 launch of GPT-6 Astra (Max), which claimed the Code Arena WebDev top spot with an Elo score around 1,800 and a 35-point lead over rivals, has reshaped trader views on second place by end of November. Anthropic’s Claude Fable 5.1 (Max) and Opus 5 models currently hold the next positions through strong multi-step reasoning and agentic web-dev performance, yet the market shows closely matched implied odds across labs because further releases or leaderboard shifts could alter rankings. Chinese contenders such as Alibaba’s Qwen variants, Moonshot’s Kimi series, and Meta’s Muse Spark models compete effectively on the cost-performance Pareto frontier but trail in absolute crowdsourced scores from over 650,000 votes on full-stack tasks. Key upcoming catalysts include additional model updates and continued voting that could tighten or widen gaps before resolution.
Experimentelle KI-generierte Zusammenfassung mit Polymarket-Daten. Dies ist keine Handelsberatung und spielt keine Rolle bei der Auflösung dieses Marktes. · Aktualisiert
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