Trump's January 2026 reversal at Davos, explicitly ruling out military force or tariffs to annex Greenland after earlier threats, combined with Pentagon confirmation that no invasion planning was requested, anchors the 96.6% "No" consensus. Ongoing bilateral talks with Denmark focus instead on expanded U.S. basing rights under existing defense agreements, including potential new facilities in southern Greenland for Arctic surveillance, without altering sovereignty. NATO allies' deployments under Operation Arctic Endurance and Greenland's firm rejection of any transfer further reinforce trader assessments that diplomatic and economic channels remain the operative path. Late-year shifts could still arise from collapsed negotiations, renewed Arctic tensions with Russia or China, or an unforeseen executive directive, though no such catalysts have materialized in recent months.