Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoTasa de desempleo de abril
Tasa de desempleo de abril
4,3% 100.0%
≤3,9% <1%
4,0% <1%
4,1% <1%
$90,149 Vol.
$90,149 Vol.
8 may 2026
≤3,9%
No
4,0%
No
4,1%
No
4,2%
No
4,3%
Sí
4.4%
No
4,5%
No
4,6%
No
≥4.7%
No
4,3% 100.0%
≤3,9% <1%
4,0% <1%
4,1% <1%
$90,149 Vol.
$90,149 Vol.
8 may 2026
≤3,9%
$6,316 Vol.
No
4,0%
$6,458 Vol.
No
4,1%
$9,130 Vol.
No
4,2%
$9,141 Vol.
No
4,3%
$14,410 Vol.
Sí
4.4%
$16,728 Vol.
No
4,5%
$8,164 Vol.
No
4,6%
$8,944 Vol.
No
≥4.7%
$10,859 Vol.
No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Mercado abierto: Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ET
Volumen
$90,149Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
This market will resolve according to the seasonally adjusted unemployment rate (total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian labor force, official unemployment rate denoted as U-3) reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics in the Employment Situation Report for April 2026.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
The resolution source for this market is the Monthly Employment Situation Report, published by the BLS every month at https://www.bls.gov/bls/news-release/empsit.htm, specifically the U-3 measure in Table A-15 for the month in question.
The relevant data release is scheduled for May 8, 2026, at 8:30 AM ET. This market will resolve as soon as the relevant data is issued. Any revisions to the data after the first release will not count toward this market's resolution.
If no data for the specified month is released by the date the next month's data is scheduled to be released, this market will resolve based on data from the last available month.
Note: the resolution source for this market reports unemployment to one decimal point. Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Volumen
$90,149Fecha de finalización
8 may 2026Mercado abierto
Apr 3, 2026, 6:55 PM ETResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resultado propuesto: No
Sin disputa
Resultado final: No
Polymarket traders have priced a 100% implied probability on the U.S. unemployment rate holding at 4.3% for April 2026, directly reflecting the Bureau of Labor Statistics' Employment Situation report released May 8, which confirmed the rate unchanged from March's 4.3% amid 115,000 nonfarm payroll additions that beat consensus estimates of 62,000–65,000 jobs. This stability aligns with recent low initial jobless claims and a cooling yet resilient labor market, bolstering the Federal Reserve's soft landing outlook as wage growth moderated to 0.2% monthly. While benchmark revisions occur annually in January without typically altering unemployment materially, any significant methodological adjustments or data errors could prompt a rare revisit, though historical precedents show minimal impact.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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