Persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 2-6 points in recent polls like YouGov/Economist and Morning Consult through late April, combined with President Trump's sub-45% approval ratings, have propelled trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the November 2026 midterms. Historical patterns show the president's party losing an average 26 House seats in midterms, amplified here by GOP infighting, state legislative setbacks, and economic pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict driving up gas prices. Cook Political Report's recent shifts toward Democrats in key Senate races underscore the competitive environment, though Republicans hold structural advantages in the Senate map; upcoming primaries could further clarify battleground dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
$41,230 Vol.
$41,230 Vol.
30 nov 2026
Sí
$41,230 Vol.
$41,230 Vol.
30 nov 2026
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfPersistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 2-6 points in recent polls like YouGov/Economist and Morning Consult through late April, combined with President Trump's sub-45% approval ratings, have propelled trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the November 2026 midterms. Historical patterns show the president's party losing an average 26 House seats in midterms, amplified here by GOP infighting, state legislative setbacks, and economic pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict driving up gas prices. Cook Political Report's recent shifts toward Democrats in key Senate races underscore the competitive environment, though Republicans hold structural advantages in the Senate map; upcoming primaries could further clarify battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Mercado abierto: Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ET
Volumen
$41,230Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdfPersistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 2-6 points in recent polls like YouGov/Economist and Morning Consult through late April, combined with President Trump's sub-45% approval ratings, have propelled trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the November 2026 midterms. Historical patterns show the president's party losing an average 26 House seats in midterms, amplified here by GOP infighting, state legislative setbacks, and economic pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict driving up gas prices. Cook Political Report's recent shifts toward Democrats in key Senate races underscore the competitive environment, though Republicans hold structural advantages in the Senate map; upcoming primaries could further clarify battleground dynamics.
This market will resolve to “Yes” if both of the following conditions are met as a result of the 2026 midterm elections:
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
- Democrats hold 218 or more seats in the House
- Democrats hold 49 or more seats in the Senate
Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
This market will remain open until it is confirmed that at least one of the above conditions has not been met, or until all of the above conditions have been met.
The full rules for this market can be found here:
https://polymarket-upload.s3.us-east-2.amazonaws.com/BlueWave.pdf
Volumen
$41,230Fecha de finalización
30 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 13, 2026, 7:52 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...Persistent Democratic leads on the generic congressional ballot, averaging 2-6 points in recent polls like YouGov/Economist and Morning Consult through late April, combined with President Trump's sub-45% approval ratings, have propelled trader consensus to an 82.5% implied probability of a blue wave in the November 2026 midterms. Historical patterns show the president's party losing an average 26 House seats in midterms, amplified here by GOP infighting, state legislative setbacks, and economic pressures from the ongoing Iran conflict driving up gas prices. Cook Political Report's recent shifts toward Democrats in key Senate races underscore the competitive environment, though Republicans hold structural advantages in the Senate map; upcoming primaries could further clarify battleground dynamics.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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