Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing to face Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California's 45th congressional district. The seat's modest Democratic lean, bolstered by recent redistricting and an 8-point voter registration edge, combined with Tran's substantial fundraising advantage and incumbency following his 2024 flip, underpin the market's 92% consensus for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high GOP turnout among key Asian-American communities could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoCA-45 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
CA-45 Ganador de las elecciones de la Cámara
$32,536 Vol.
$32,536 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
92%
Partido Republicano
8%
$32,536 Vol.
$32,536 Vol.
2 nov 2026
Partido Demócrata
$19,078 Vol.
92%
Partido Republicano
$13,457 Vol.
8%
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing to face Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California's 45th congressional district. The seat's modest Democratic lean, bolstered by recent redistricting and an 8-point voter registration edge, combined with Tran's substantial fundraising advantage and incumbency following his 2024 flip, underpin the market's 92% consensus for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high GOP turnout among key Asian-American communities could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Mercado abierto: Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ET
Volumen
$32,536Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing to face Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California's 45th congressional district. The seat's modest Democratic lean, bolstered by recent redistricting and an 8-point voter registration edge, combined with Tran's substantial fundraising advantage and incumbency following his 2024 flip, underpin the market's 92% consensus for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high GOP turnout among key Asian-American communities could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
This market will resolve according to the party of the candidate who wins the CA-45 congressional district seat in the U.S. House of Representatives in the 2026 midterm elections. The midterm elections will take place on November 3, 2026.
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
A candidate's party will be determined by their ballot-listed or otherwise identifiable affiliation with that party at the time all of the 2026 House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources. A candidate without a ballot-listed affiliation to either the Democrat or Republican parties will be considered a member of one of these parties based on the party with which they most recently expressed their intent to caucus at the time all of the House elections are conclusively called by this market's resolution sources.
This market will resolve based on the result of the election as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the United States government, specifically the Federal Election Commission (https://www.fec.gov/).
Volumen
$32,536Fecha de finalización
3 nov 2026Mercado abierto
Jan 28, 2026, 10:30 AM ETResolver
0x2F5e3684c...Incumbent Democrat Derek Tran secured a commanding 53.8% in the June 2026 top-two primary, advancing to face Republican Chuong Vo in the November general election for California's 45th congressional district. The seat's modest Democratic lean, bolstered by recent redistricting and an 8-point voter registration edge, combined with Tran's substantial fundraising advantage and incumbency following his 2024 flip, underpin the market's 92% consensus for a Democratic outcome. Forecasters rate the race Lean or Likely Democratic. A major national Republican surge, unexpected scandal, or unusually high GOP turnout among key Asian-American communities could still narrow the gap before Election Day.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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