The Fed's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% target range, coupled with projections showing a 4.1% median path through 2027 amid 3.7% PCE inflation, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before year-end 2026. Solid GDP growth, stable 4.1% unemployment, and resilient domestic spending have reinforced the Committee's focus on price stability over easing, with no indications of distress in labor markets or financial conditions that would warrant rapid accommodation. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting odds include a severe geopolitical shock triggering supply disruptions or a sudden credit event forcing liquidity support, though current data and forward guidance show limited near-term vulnerability to such outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · ActualizadoSí
3% probabilidad
$230,988 Vol.
$230,988 Vol.
31 dic 2026
Sí
3% probabilidad
$230,988 Vol.
$230,988 Vol.
31 dic 2026
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% target range, coupled with projections showing a 4.1% median path through 2027 amid 3.7% PCE inflation, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before year-end 2026. Solid GDP growth, stable 4.1% unemployment, and resilient domestic spending have reinforced the Committee's focus on price stability over easing, with no indications of distress in labor markets or financial conditions that would warrant rapid accommodation. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting odds include a severe geopolitical shock triggering supply disruptions or a sudden credit event forcing liquidity support, though current data and forward guidance show limited near-term vulnerability to such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Mercado abierto: Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ET
Volumen
$230,988Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.The Fed's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% target range, coupled with projections showing a 4.1% median path through 2027 amid 3.7% PCE inflation, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before year-end 2026. Solid GDP growth, stable 4.1% unemployment, and resilient domestic spending have reinforced the Committee's focus on price stability over easing, with no indications of distress in labor markets or financial conditions that would warrant rapid accommodation. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting odds include a severe geopolitical shock triggering supply disruptions or a sudden credit event forcing liquidity support, though current data and forward guidance show limited near-term vulnerability to such outcomes.
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No".
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026.
The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.
Volumen
$230,988Fecha de finalización
1 ene 2027Mercado abierto
Nov 12, 2025, 6:03 PM ETResolver
0x65070BE91...The Fed's unanimous September 16, 2026, decision to raise the federal funds rate by 25 basis points to the 3.75-4.00% target range, coupled with projections showing a 4.1% median path through 2027 amid 3.7% PCE inflation, underpins the 97.5% market-implied probability against an emergency rate cut before year-end 2026. Solid GDP growth, stable 4.1% unemployment, and resilient domestic spending have reinforced the Committee's focus on price stability over easing, with no indications of distress in labor markets or financial conditions that would warrant rapid accommodation. Tail-risk scenarios capable of shifting odds include a severe geopolitical shock triggering supply disruptions or a sudden credit event forcing liquidity support, though current data and forward guidance show limited near-term vulnerability to such outcomes.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket. Esto no es asesoramiento de trading y no influye en cómo se resuelve este mercado. · Actualizado
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