Divergent short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models are driving the even 25.5% implied probabilities across Beijing's March 24 high temperature options, reflecting high uncertainty just days out. Ensemble spreads show lows near 15°C under potential cold frontal passages from Mongolia, versus highs above 24°C if southerly winds and high pressure dominate amid an unusually mild spring—Beijing's March averages hover around 13°C historically per China Meteorological Administration data, but recent weeks have seen anomalies up to 5°C above normal. Trader sentiment hinges on tonight's 00Z model runs, which could sharpen consensus on whether urban heat island effects or cloud cover tip the balance toward mid-teens or low-20s peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Beijing on March 24?
Highest temperature in Beijing on March 24?
15°C or below 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 26%
18°C 26%
15°C or below
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
41%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C or higher
26%
15°C or below 26%
16°C 26%
17°C 26%
18°C 26%
15°C or below
26%
16°C
26%
17°C
26%
18°C
26%
19°C
41%
20°C
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Beijing Capital International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:24 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/beijing/ZBAAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Divergent short-range forecasts from ECMWF and GFS models are driving the even 25.5% implied probabilities across Beijing's March 24 high temperature options, reflecting high uncertainty just days out. Ensemble spreads show lows near 15°C under potential cold frontal passages from Mongolia, versus highs above 24°C if southerly winds and high pressure dominate amid an unusually mild spring—Beijing's March averages hover around 13°C historically per China Meteorological Administration data, but recent weeks have seen anomalies up to 5°C above normal. Trader sentiment hinges on tonight's 00Z model runs, which could sharpen consensus on whether urban heat island effects or cloud cover tip the balance toward mid-teens or low-20s peaks.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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