Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward mild spring warmth in Seoul on March 22, with implied probabilities peaking at 31.5% for 14°C or higher, closely trailed by 22.5% each for 12°C and 13°C. Differentiating factors include the weakening Siberian High allowing southerly advection of maritime air masses, potentially pushing peaks above 13°C in clearer skies, versus transient high clouds or diurnally timed cold fronts capping at 12°C; Seoul's urban heat island adds 1-2°C locally. Historical late-March averages hover near 12°C, but recent model runs show slight upward revisions amid low wind shear uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
Highest temperature in Seoul on March 22?
14°C or higher 32%
12°C 24%
13°C 23%
11°C 16%
$71,821 Vol.
$71,821 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
16%
12°C
24%
13°C
23%
14°C or higher
32%
14°C or higher 32%
12°C 24%
13°C 23%
11°C 16%
$71,821 Vol.
$71,821 Vol.
4°C or below
<1%
5°C
<1%
6°C
1%
7°C
1%
8°C
2%
9°C
3%
10°C
4%
11°C
16%
12°C
24%
13°C
23%
14°C or higher
32%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Incheon Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSI.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/kr/incheon/RKSIResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest Korea Meteorological Administration forecasts and global ensemble models like ECMWF and GFS drive trader consensus toward mild spring warmth in Seoul on March 22, with implied probabilities peaking at 31.5% for 14°C or higher, closely trailed by 22.5% each for 12°C and 13°C. Differentiating factors include the weakening Siberian High allowing southerly advection of maritime air masses, potentially pushing peaks above 13°C in clearer skies, versus transient high clouds or diurnally timed cold fronts capping at 12°C; Seoul's urban heat island adds 1-2°C locally. Historical late-March averages hover near 12°C, but recent model runs show slight upward revisions amid low wind shear uncertainty.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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