Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 21 highest temperature remains evenly split across 14–24°C bins at 25% implied probability each (except 15°C at 13%), reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid the Sichuan Basin's variable spring meteorology. Primary drivers include ensemble model divergence—ECMWF clusters around 19°C, GFS leans toward 21°C—against historical March highs averaging 17°C from 1991–2020 Chengdu station data. Recent developments feature a mild pre-frontal warm-up with southerly winds boosting potential to 22°C, tempered by persistent haze (AQI >150) suppressing insolation and diurnal peaks. Watch noon-hour cloud cover and the 12Z GFS update for resolution criteria differentiation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
Highest temperature in Chengdu on March 21?
14°C o menos 25%
16°C 25%
17°C 25%
18°C 25%
14°C o menos
25%
15°C
13%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C or higher
25%
14°C o menos 25%
16°C 25%
17°C 25%
18°C 25%
14°C o menos
25%
15°C
13%
16°C
25%
17°C
25%
18°C
25%
19°C
25%
20°C
25%
21°C
25%
22°C
25%
23°C
25%
24°C or higher
25%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUU.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:59 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/chengdu/ZUUUResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Chengdu's March 21 highest temperature remains evenly split across 14–24°C bins at 25% implied probability each (except 15°C at 13%), reflecting tight uncertainty in short-range forecasts amid the Sichuan Basin's variable spring meteorology. Primary drivers include ensemble model divergence—ECMWF clusters around 19°C, GFS leans toward 21°C—against historical March highs averaging 17°C from 1991–2020 Chengdu station data. Recent developments feature a mild pre-frontal warm-up with southerly winds boosting potential to 22°C, tempered by persistent haze (AQI >150) suppressing insolation and diurnal peaks. Watch noon-hour cloud cover and the 12Z GFS update for resolution criteria differentiation.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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