Trader consensus on Shenzhen's highest temperature March 22 reveals extreme uncertainty, with odds tightly clustered around 25-26% across outcomes from 20°C or below to 30°C+, reflecting divergent global forecast models amid transitional spring weather. Historical March highs average 23-25°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but current ECMWF and GFS ensembles diverge due to potential cold frontal passages from the north versus persistent southerly moisture advection and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1-2°C. Recent 00Z model runs tilt slightly toward 26-27°C via strengthening subtropical ridge, yet sea breeze moderation near Daya Bay introduces volatility, keeping lower outcomes viable if cloud cover persists. Watch CMA's 12-hourly updates for resolution-defining clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 22?
27°C 26%
20°C or below 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
20°C or below
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
27°C 26%
20°C or below 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
20°C or below
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:14 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Shenzhen's highest temperature March 22 reveals extreme uncertainty, with odds tightly clustered around 25-26% across outcomes from 20°C or below to 30°C+, reflecting divergent global forecast models amid transitional spring weather. Historical March highs average 23-25°C per China Meteorological Administration data, but current ECMWF and GFS ensembles diverge due to potential cold frontal passages from the north versus persistent southerly moisture advection and urban heat island effects amplifying peaks by 1-2°C. Recent 00Z model runs tilt slightly toward 26-27°C via strengthening subtropical ridge, yet sea breeze moderation near Daya Bay introduces volatility, keeping lower outcomes viable if cloud cover persists. Watch CMA's 12-hourly updates for resolution-defining clarity.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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