Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 23 remains evenly split across 21–30°C outcomes, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in subtropical spring forecasts amid urban heat island amplification and variable sea breezes. China Meteorological Administration models currently project a cluster around 25–28°C, driven by lingering El Niño warmth offsetting recent cool northerly outflows, with ensemble spreads of ±3°C differentiating leaders like 28°C (26.5%) from 23–27°C (26.0% each). Historical March highs average 24°C, but 2024's anomalous jet stream positioning boosts 29°C+ odds to 26%, while below-20°C lags at 2% per low-probability cold snaps. Key watch: evening CMA updates could sharpen resolution criteria.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 23?
28°C 27%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
23°C 26%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
28°C 27%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
23°C 26%
20°C or below
2%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
27%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's highest temperature on March 23 remains evenly split across 21–30°C outcomes, reflecting the inherent uncertainty in subtropical spring forecasts amid urban heat island amplification and variable sea breezes. China Meteorological Administration models currently project a cluster around 25–28°C, driven by lingering El Niño warmth offsetting recent cool northerly outflows, with ensemble spreads of ±3°C differentiating leaders like 28°C (26.5%) from 23–27°C (26.0% each). Historical March highs average 24°C, but 2024's anomalous jet stream positioning boosts 29°C+ odds to 26%, while below-20°C lags at 2% per low-probability cold snaps. Key watch: evening CMA updates could sharpen resolution criteria.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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