Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast pins Taipei's March 20 high temperature at around 22°C amid a cool front ushering cloudy conditions and scattered showers, driving the market's 76% implied probability on that outcome. Recent observations show highs of 23-24°C on March 18-19, but incoming northeasterly winds and increased cloud cover—hallmarks of early spring East Asian monsoon transitions—are expected to suppress peaks, aligning trader consensus with ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS converging on 21-23°C. Historical March averages hover near 23°C, yet this system's moisture loading favors the lower end, with minimal upside risk for 24°C or higher per current soundings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Taipéi el 20 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Taipéi el 20 de marzo?
22°C 84%
23°C 14%
24°C 1.2%
26°C <1%
$60,065 Vol.
$60,065 Vol.
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
73%
23°C
14%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C o más
<1%
22°C 84%
23°C 14%
24°C 1.2%
26°C <1%
$60,065 Vol.
$60,065 Vol.
20°C
<1%
21°C
<1%
22°C
73%
23°C
14%
24°C
1%
25°C
1%
26°C
1%
27°C
<1%
28°C o más
<1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 2:27 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Taiwan's Central Weather Administration forecast pins Taipei's March 20 high temperature at around 22°C amid a cool front ushering cloudy conditions and scattered showers, driving the market's 76% implied probability on that outcome. Recent observations show highs of 23-24°C on March 18-19, but incoming northeasterly winds and increased cloud cover—hallmarks of early spring East Asian monsoon transitions—are expected to suppress peaks, aligning trader consensus with ensemble model outputs from ECMWF and GFS converging on 21-23°C. Historical March averages hover near 23°C, yet this system's moisture loading favors the lower end, with minimal upside risk for 24°C or higher per current soundings.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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