Latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight race between 26°C (26%) and 27°C (26.5%) as Taipei's March 23 high, implying trader consensus on a mild warm-up under persistent high pressure and light southerlies. Differentiation hinges on afternoon cloud timing: clearer skies could push 27°C via urban heat island amplification in Taipei, while early overcast favors 26°C or the 22.5% bid on 22°C or below amid 20% shower risk. Historical March averages hover at 23°C, but lingering El Niño warmth elevates upper-20s odds; watch evening model runs for shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 23?
25°C 32%
27°C 32%
26°C 26%
22°C or below 22%
22°C or below
22%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C or higher
7%
25°C 32%
27°C 32%
26°C 26%
22°C or below 22%
22°C or below
22%
23°C
17%
24°C
17%
25°C
18%
26°C
26%
27°C
27%
28°C
18%
29°C
15%
30°C
14%
31°C
12%
32°C or higher
7%
The resolution source for this market will be information from NOAA, specifically the highest reading under the "Temp" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/timeseries?site=RCTP
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the "Switch to Metric Units" button until the relevant table displays °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:23 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ensemble forecasts from Taiwan's Central Weather Bureau and global models like ECMWF and GFS drive the tight race between 26°C (26%) and 27°C (26.5%) as Taipei's March 23 high, implying trader consensus on a mild warm-up under persistent high pressure and light southerlies. Differentiation hinges on afternoon cloud timing: clearer skies could push 27°C via urban heat island amplification in Taipei, while early overcast favors 26°C or the 22.5% bid on 22°C or below amid 20% shower risk. Historical March averages hover at 23°C, but lingering El Niño warmth elevates upper-20s odds; watch evening model runs for shifts before resolution.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Preguntas frecuentes