Trader consensus tilts toward a 26°C high in Taipei on March 22 at 26.5% implied probability, propelled by Central Weather Administration (CWA) ensemble forecasts showing southerly winds ushering mild air under a high-pressure ridge, with peaks of 25-27°C. Closely trailing 27°C (21.5%) reflects optimistic sunny scenarios, while lower odds for 22-24°C (18-17.5%) account for potential sea-breeze clouds or diurnal instability capping adiabatic warming. March climatology averages 23°C highs but varies 3-5°C from frontal timing; recent GFS/ECMWF runs diverge by 2°C due to moisture advection uncertainty, tightening odds amid stable but variable subtropical conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
Highest temperature in Taipei on March 22?
26°C 27%
23°C 19%
22°C 19%
24°C 18%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
12%
22°C
19%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
12%
26°C
27%
27°C
22%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
9%
26°C 27%
23°C 19%
22°C 19%
24°C 18%
19°C or below
1%
20°C
2%
21°C
12%
22°C
19%
23°C
18%
24°C
18%
25°C
12%
26°C
27%
27°C
22%
28°C
11%
29°C or higher
9%
The resolution source for this market will be information from the Taipei Central Weather Administration, specifically the highest reading under the "Temperature" column on the specified date once information is finalized for all hours on that date, available here: https://www.cwa.gov.tw/V8/C/W/OBS_Station.html?ID=46692
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until data for this date has been finalized.
This market will resolve to the degree indicated in its title (e.g., if a market's title indicates it will resolve to "Yes" if 21°C is the highest temperature on a given day, all temperatures within the range 21.0-21.9°C [inclusive] will qualify).
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures in Celsius to one decimal place (eg, 9.1°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:03 AM ET
Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus tilts toward a 26°C high in Taipei on March 22 at 26.5% implied probability, propelled by Central Weather Administration (CWA) ensemble forecasts showing southerly winds ushering mild air under a high-pressure ridge, with peaks of 25-27°C. Closely trailing 27°C (21.5%) reflects optimistic sunny scenarios, while lower odds for 22-24°C (18-17.5%) account for potential sea-breeze clouds or diurnal instability capping adiabatic warming. March climatology averages 23°C highs but varies 3-5°C from frontal timing; recent GFS/ECMWF runs diverge by 2°C due to moisture advection uncertainty, tightening odds amid stable but variable subtropical conditions.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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