Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's March 24 high temperature reveals extreme uncertainty, with 28°C holding a slim 26% implied probability amid evenly split 25.5% odds across cooler outcomes, driven by divergent short-range models from the European Centre and GFS ensembles. Primary differentiator: a weakening cold frontal boundary over the Pearl River Delta, potentially capping highs at 24-25°C via cloud advection and northerly gusts, versus southerly moisture influx favoring 27-29°C if high pressure rebounds. Historical March 24 averages 24.5°C (1981-2020 baseline), amplified 1-2°C by urban heat island effects; recent China Meteorological Administration soundings show stable boundary layers primed for 3-5°C diurnal swings. Watch afternoon convective clearing in latest radar for pivotal resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
Highest temperature in Shenzhen on March 24?
28°C 26%
20°C or below 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
20°C or below
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
28°C 26%
20°C or below 26%
21°C 26%
22°C 26%
20°C or below
26%
21°C
26%
22°C
26%
23°C
26%
24°C
26%
25°C
26%
26°C
26%
27°C
26%
28°C
26%
29°C
26%
30°C or higher
26%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Shenzhen Bao'an International Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZ.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 7:21 PM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/cn/shenzhen/ZGSZResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader sentiment for Shenzhen's March 24 high temperature reveals extreme uncertainty, with 28°C holding a slim 26% implied probability amid evenly split 25.5% odds across cooler outcomes, driven by divergent short-range models from the European Centre and GFS ensembles. Primary differentiator: a weakening cold frontal boundary over the Pearl River Delta, potentially capping highs at 24-25°C via cloud advection and northerly gusts, versus southerly moisture influx favoring 27-29°C if high pressure rebounds. Historical March 24 averages 24.5°C (1981-2020 baseline), amplified 1-2°C by urban heat island effects; recent China Meteorological Administration soundings show stable boundary layers primed for 3-5°C diurnal swings. Watch afternoon convective clearing in latest radar for pivotal resolution cues.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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