Current short-range forecasts from the China Meteorological Administration and global models indicate daily highs near 36–37°C in Chengdu through mid-August, anchoring trader consensus around those bins for August 14. Persistent summer monsoon moisture, scattered afternoon convection, and variable cloud cover introduce the main uncertainty, as any earlier or heavier showers could cap the maximum a degree or two lower while clear, subsiding conditions would favor the upper end of the distribution. Historical August climatology shows typical peaks of 30–34°C with occasional spikes above 35°C under strong high-pressure influence, and the current setup aligns with that pattern without extreme heatwave signals. Updated model runs and official guidance expected within 24–48 hours will likely sharpen resolution criteria tied to the official station reading.