Recent India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts pinpoint a maximum temperature of around 32°C for Lucknow on March 23, driven by lingering effects of a western disturbance bringing cooler northerly winds and cloud cover, tempering the typical late-March warming trend where historical averages hover near 33-34°C. This aligns with trader consensus, assigning 47.5% implied probability to 31°C or below—reflecting model uncertainty in exact clearing skies—and 29.5% to precisely 32°C, while hotter outcomes like 35°C+ carry low odds below 7% amid absent heatwave signals. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles reinforce mild conditions, with minimal risk of spikes above 34°C unless rapid clearing occurs post-disturbance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
Highest temperature in Lucknow on March 23?
31°C or below 48%
32°C 30%
33°C 10%
34°C 9%
$117,768 Vol.
$117,768 Vol.
31°C or below
48%
32°C
30%
33°C
10%
34°C
9%
35°C
6%
36°C
5%
37°C
1%
38°C
3%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
1%
31°C or below 48%
32°C 30%
33°C 10%
34°C 9%
$117,768 Vol.
$117,768 Vol.
31°C or below
48%
32°C
30%
33°C
10%
34°C
9%
35°C
6%
36°C
5%
37°C
1%
38°C
3%
39°C
1%
40°C
1%
41°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Chaudhary Charan Singh Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILK.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 19, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/in/lucknow/VILKResolver
0x69c47De9D...Recent India Meteorological Department (IMD) forecasts pinpoint a maximum temperature of around 32°C for Lucknow on March 23, driven by lingering effects of a western disturbance bringing cooler northerly winds and cloud cover, tempering the typical late-March warming trend where historical averages hover near 33-34°C. This aligns with trader consensus, assigning 47.5% implied probability to 31°C or below—reflecting model uncertainty in exact clearing skies—and 29.5% to precisely 32°C, while hotter outcomes like 35°C+ carry low odds below 7% amid absent heatwave signals. Updated ECMWF and GFS ensembles reinforce mild conditions, with minimal risk of spikes above 34°C unless rapid clearing occurs post-disturbance.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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