Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a narrow high-temperature range of 11–12°C in Ankara on March 22, with 12°C edging out at 34.5% implied probability amid model spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon solar heating and light northerly winds. Recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates indicate lingering effects from a cool continental air mass, suppressing maxima below the March historical average of 13.5°C, while minor divergences arise from cloud cover timing—persistent overcast favors 11°C (28.5%), partial clearing boosts 13°C odds (15.5%). Diurnal ranges typically 8–10°C amplify small forecast errors, underscoring volatility as new 00Z runs loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · ActualizadoHighest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
Highest temperature in Ankara on March 22?
12°C 35%
11°C 29%
13°C 15%
10°C 11%
$22,068 Vol.
$22,068 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
29%
12°C
35%
13°C
15%
14°C
6%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
1%
12°C 35%
11°C 29%
13°C 15%
10°C 11%
$22,068 Vol.
$22,068 Vol.
6°C or below
<1%
7°C
1%
8°C
1%
9°C
2%
10°C
11%
11°C
29%
12°C
35%
13°C
15%
14°C
6%
15°C
2%
16°C or higher
1%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the Esenboğa Intl Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTAC.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Celsius (eg, 9°C). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 18, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/tr/%C3%A7ubuk/LTACResolver
0x69c47De9D...Latest ECMWF and GFS ensemble forecasts drive trader consensus toward a narrow high-temperature range of 11–12°C in Ankara on March 22, with 12°C edging out at 34.5% implied probability amid model spread reflecting uncertainty in afternoon solar heating and light northerly winds. Recent Turkish State Meteorological Service updates indicate lingering effects from a cool continental air mass, suppressing maxima below the March historical average of 13.5°C, while minor divergences arise from cloud cover timing—persistent overcast favors 11°C (28.5%), partial clearing boosts 13°C odds (15.5%). Diurnal ranges typically 8–10°C amplify small forecast errors, underscoring volatility as new 00Z runs loom.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
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Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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