Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in New York City on March 24 (33% implied probability), driven by converging forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting afternoon peaks near 46°F amid a cool Canadian high-pressure ridge. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergence, with GFS edging warmer (48-49°F at 21.5%) and Euro cooler (44-45°F at 21.5%), reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and residual cloud cover from prior moisture. Lower odds for extremes stem from climatological norms (March 24 average ~52°F) tempered by lingering La Niña cooling, jet stream positioning, and urban heat island effects at Central Park's official station; watch evening NWS updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 24 de marzo?
¿La temperatura más alta en Nueva York el 24 de marzo?
46-47°F 33%
44-45°F 22%
48-49°F 22%
52-53°F 9%
37°F o menos
1%
38-39°F
4%
40-41°F
3%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
22%
46-47°F
33%
48-49°F
22%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
7%
56°F o más
2%
46-47°F 33%
44-45°F 22%
48-49°F 22%
52-53°F 9%
37°F o menos
1%
38-39°F
4%
40-41°F
3%
42-43°F
3%
44-45°F
22%
46-47°F
33%
48-49°F
22%
50-51°F
8%
52-53°F
9%
54-55°F
7%
56°F o más
2%
The resolution source for this market will be information from Wunderground, specifically the highest temperature recorded for all times on this day by the Forecast for the LaGuardia Airport Station once information is finalized, available here: https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGA.
To toggle between Fahrenheit and Celsius, click the gear icon next to the search bar and switch the Temperature setting between °F and °C.
This market can not resolve to "Yes" until all data for this date has been finalized.
The resolution source for this market measures temperatures to whole degrees Fahrenheit (eg, 21°F). Thus, this is the level of precision that will be used when resolving the market.
Any revisions to temperatures recorded after data is finalized for this market's timeframe will not be considered for this market's resolution.
Mercado abierto: Mar 20, 2026, 6:02 AM ET
Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Resolution Source
https://www.wunderground.com/history/daily/us/ny/new-york-city/KLGAResolver
0x69c47De9D...Trader consensus on Polymarket favors a high temperature of 46-47°F in New York City on March 24 (33% implied probability), driven by converging forecasts from NOAA's GFS and ECMWF models projecting afternoon peaks near 46°F amid a cool Canadian high-pressure ridge. Recent 12Z model runs show slight divergence, with GFS edging warmer (48-49°F at 21.5%) and Euro cooler (44-45°F at 21.5%), reflecting uncertainty in boundary layer mixing and residual cloud cover from prior moisture. Lower odds for extremes stem from climatological norms (March 24 average ~52°F) tempered by lingering La Niña cooling, jet stream positioning, and urban heat island effects at Central Park's official station; watch evening NWS updates for shifts.
Resumen experimental generado por IA con datos de Polymarket · Actualizado
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
Cuidado con los enlaces externos.
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